We simulated Leeds United vs Manchester United 100,000 times. Leeds United won 41,886 of them (41.9%), the draw came up 26.5% of the time and Manchester United won 31.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.3%, while the likeliest Leeds United win is 2-1 (8.8%). Both teams score in 59.8% of simulations.
| Leeds United win | 41.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.5% |
| Manchester United win | 31.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.60 – 1.36 |
| Both teams to score | 59.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.3% |
| Leeds United score first | 54.5% |
| Manchester United score first | 38.5% |
| Leeds United clean sheet | 26% |
| Manchester United clean sheet | 20.7% |
Everton
Chelsea
1.5–1.5
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Fulham
Hull City
1.9–1.1
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Brentford
Liverpool
1.6–1.4
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Manchester City
Ipswich Town
2.7–0.9
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
1.7–1.5
xG
61%
Over 2.5
AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland
1.7–1.2
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Brighton & Hove Albion
Crystal Palace
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
0.9–1.7
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665671 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Leeds United are favourites. They win 41.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.5% for the draw and 31.6% for Manchester United. Including the draw, Leeds United avoid defeat 68.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.3% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.8%) and 1-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Leeds United win is 2-1 (8.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 59.8% of simulations. Leeds United keep a clean sheet 26% of the time and Manchester United 20.7%.
The simulations average 2.96 goals: 1.60 for Leeds United and 1.36 for Manchester United. Over 1.5 goals lands 80.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 56.5% and over 3.5 goals 34.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
