We simulated Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal 100,000 times. Arsenal won 56,303 of them (56.3%), the draw came up 26.1% of the time and Nottingham Forest won 17.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.3%, while the likeliest Arsenal win is 0-1 (11.6%). Both teams score in 48.7% of simulations.
| Nottingham Forest win | 17.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.1% |
| Arsenal win | 56.3% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.3%) |
| Expected goals | 0.87 – 1.73 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.2% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.6% |
| Nottingham Forest score first | 33.2% |
| Arsenal score first | 58.3% |
| Nottingham Forest clean sheet | 18.1% |
| Arsenal clean sheet | 42.2% |
Everton
Chelsea
1.5–1.5
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Fulham
Hull City
1.9–1.1
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Brentford
Liverpool
1.6–1.4
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Manchester City
Ipswich Town
2.7–0.9
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
1.7–1.4
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Leeds United
Manchester United
1.6–1.4
xG
57%
Over 2.5
AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland
1.7–1.2
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Brighton & Hove Albion
Crystal Palace
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665957 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Arsenal are favourites. They win 56.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.1% for the draw and 17.6% for Nottingham Forest. Including the draw, Arsenal avoid defeat 82.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.3% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (11.6%) and 0-2 (11%). The likeliest Arsenal win is 0-1 (11.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 48.7% of simulations. Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet 18.1% of the time and Arsenal 42.2%.
The simulations average 2.60 goals: 0.87 for Nottingham Forest and 1.73 for Arsenal. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.2% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.1% and over 3.5 goals 26.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
