We simulated Everton vs Chelsea 100,000 times. Chelsea won 38,444 of them (38.4%), the draw came up 25.9% of the time and Everton won 35.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.9%, while the likeliest Chelsea win is 1-2 (8.4%). Both teams score in 60.5% of simulations.
| Everton win | 35.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.9% |
| Chelsea win | 38.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.9%) |
| Expected goals | 1.46 – 1.53 |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.1% |
| Everton score first | 40.3% |
| Chelsea score first | 53.7% |
| Everton clean sheet | 22.1% |
| Chelsea clean sheet | 23.5% |
Fulham
Hull City
1.9–1.1
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Brentford
Liverpool
1.6–1.4
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Manchester City
Ipswich Town
2.7–0.9
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Newcastle United
Aston Villa
1.7–1.4
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Leeds United
Manchester United
1.6–1.4
xG
57%
Over 2.5
AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland
1.7–1.2
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Brighton & Hove Albion
Crystal Palace
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
0.9–1.7
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665920 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Chelsea are favourites. They win 38.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.9% for the draw and 35.7% for Everton. Including the draw, Chelsea avoid defeat 64.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.9% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.4%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest Chelsea win is 1-2 (8.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 60.5% of simulations. Everton keep a clean sheet 22.1% of the time and Chelsea 23.5%.
The simulations average 2.99 goals: 1.46 for Everton and 1.53 for Chelsea. Over 1.5 goals lands 80.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 57.3% and over 3.5 goals 35.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
