We simulated Newcastle United vs Aston Villa 100,000 times. Newcastle United won 43,509 of them (43.5%), the draw came up 24.7% of the time and Aston Villa won 31.8%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.1%, while the likeliest Newcastle United win is 2-1 (8.8%). Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
| Newcastle United win | 43.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.7% |
| Aston Villa win | 31.8% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.73 – 1.45 |
| Both teams to score | 63% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.2% |
| Newcastle United score first | 54.9% |
| Aston Villa score first | 39.9% |
| Newcastle United clean sheet | 23.9% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 18.2% |
Everton
Chelsea
1.5–1.5
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Fulham
Hull City
1.9–1.1
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Brentford
Liverpool
1.6–1.4
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Manchester City
Ipswich Town
2.7–0.9
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Leeds United
Manchester United
1.6–1.4
xG
57%
Over 2.5
AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland
1.7–1.2
xG
55%
Over 2.5
Brighton & Hove Albion
Crystal Palace
2.1–1.0
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
0.9–1.7
xG
48%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665891 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Newcastle United are favourites. They win 43.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.7% for the draw and 31.8% for Aston Villa. Including the draw, Newcastle United avoid defeat 68.2% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.1% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.8%) and 1-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Newcastle United win is 2-1 (8.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 63% of simulations. Newcastle United keep a clean sheet 23.9% of the time and Aston Villa 18.2%.
The simulations average 3.18 goals: 1.73 for Newcastle United and 1.45 for Aston Villa. Over 1.5 goals lands 82.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 61.2% and over 3.5 goals 39.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
