We simulated Machida Zelvia vs Avispa Fukuoka 100,000 times. Machida Zelvia won 54,343 of them (54.3%), the draw came up 24.7% of the time and Avispa Fukuoka won 21%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.6%, while the likeliest Machida Zelvia win is 1-0 (11.4%). Both teams score in 50.7% of simulations.
| Machida Zelvia win | 54.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.7% |
| Avispa Fukuoka win | 21% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.71 – 0.97 |
| Both teams to score | 50.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.9% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.2% |
| Machida Zelvia score first | 56.4% |
| Avispa Fukuoka score first | 36.5% |
| Machida Zelvia clean sheet | 38.4% |
| Avispa Fukuoka clean sheet | 18.5% |
Shimizu S-Pulse
Gamba Osaka
1.5–1.2
xG
50%
Over 2.5
JEF United
Yokohama F. Marinos
1.1–1.5
xG
49%
Over 2.5
Tokyo Verdy
FC Tokyo
0.8–1.8
xG
47%
Over 2.5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Kyoto Sanga
2.5–0.8
xG
64%
Over 2.5
Kashima Antlers
V-Varen Nagasaki
2.1–0.8
xG
57%
Over 2.5
Cerezo Osaka
Kawasaki Frontale
1.5–1.5
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Mito Hollyhock
Urawa Reds
1.2–1.5
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Kashiwa Reysol
Nagoya Grampus
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420605849 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Machida Zelvia are favourites. They win 54.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.7% for the draw and 21% for Avispa Fukuoka. Including the draw, Machida Zelvia avoid defeat 79.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.6% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (11.4%) and 2-0 (10%). The likeliest Machida Zelvia win is 1-0 (11.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 50.7% of simulations. Machida Zelvia keep a clean sheet 38.4% of the time and Avispa Fukuoka 18.5%.
The simulations average 2.68 goals: 1.71 for Machida Zelvia and 0.97 for Avispa Fukuoka. Over 1.5 goals lands 74.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 49.9% and over 3.5 goals 28.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
