We simulated Napoli vs Roma 100,000 times. Roma won 37,118 of them (37.1%), the draw came up 27.4% of the time and Napoli won 35.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.9%, while the likeliest Roma win is 1-2 (8.3%). Both teams score in 56.2% of simulations.
| Napoli win | 35.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.4% |
| Roma win | 37.1% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.9%) |
| Expected goals | 1.36 – 1.39 |
| Both teams to score | 56.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% |
| Napoli score first | 45.3% |
| Roma score first | 47% |
| Napoli clean sheet | 25.3% |
| Roma clean sheet | 26.2% |
Torino
Monza
1.6–1.2
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Cagliari
Bologna
1.1–1.2
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Como
Sassuolo
2.2–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Lazio
Parma
2.1–0.8
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Inter
Fiorentina
2.6–1.0
xG
71%
Over 2.5
Genoa
Venezia
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Atalanta
Frosinone
2.1–1.3
xG
66%
Over 2.5
Lecce
Juventus
0.8–2.0
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420669019 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Roma are favourites. They win 37.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.4% for the draw and 35.5% for Napoli. Including the draw, Roma avoid defeat 64.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.9% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.3%) and 2-1 (8.1%). The likeliest Roma win is 1-2 (8.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 56.2% of simulations. Napoli keep a clean sheet 25.3% of the time and Roma 26.2%.
The simulations average 2.75 goals: 1.36 for Napoli and 1.39 for Roma. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 51.6% and over 3.5 goals 29.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
