We simulated Roma vs Cagliari 100,000 times. Roma won 69,415 of them (69.4%), the draw came up 19.7% of the time and Cagliari won 10.9%. The most likely score is 2-0 (12.2%), and both teams score in 48.7% of simulations.
| Roma win | 69.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.7% |
| Cagliari win | 10.9% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (12.2%) |
| Expected goals | 2.24 – 0.78 |
| Both teams to score | 48.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% |
| Roma score first | 70.4% |
| Cagliari score first | 23.8% |
| Roma clean sheet | 46.2% |
| Cagliari clean sheet | 11.1% |
Torino
Monza
1.6–1.2
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Cagliari
Bologna
1.1–1.2
xG
40%
Over 2.5
Como
Sassuolo
2.2–1.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Napoli
Roma
1.4–1.4
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Lazio
Parma
2.1–0.8
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Inter
Fiorentina
2.6–1.0
xG
71%
Over 2.5
Genoa
Venezia
1.6–1.2
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Atalanta
Frosinone
2.1–1.3
xG
66%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420668919 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Roma are favourites. They win 69.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 19.7% for the draw and 10.9% for Cagliari. Including the draw, Roma avoid defeat 89.1% of the time.
2-0, which came up in 12.2% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 48.7% of simulations. Roma keep a clean sheet 46.2% of the time and Cagliari 11.1%.
The simulations average 3.02 goals: 2.24 for Roma and 0.78 for Cagliari. Over 1.5 goals lands 80.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 57.7% and over 3.5 goals 35.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
