We simulated Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 100,000 times. FSV Mainz 05 won 40,228 of them (40.2%), the draw came up 25.6% of the time and Schalke 04 won 34.2%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.4%, while the likeliest FSV Mainz 05 win is 1-2 (8.5%). Both teams score in 64.4% of simulations.
| Schalke 04 win | 34.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.6% |
| FSV Mainz 05 win | 40.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.54 – 1.68 |
| Both teams to score | 64.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.1% |
| Schalke 04 score first | 51.4% |
| FSV Mainz 05 score first | 43.2% |
| Schalke 04 clean sheet | 19.1% |
| FSV Mainz 05 clean sheet | 21.9% |
Eintracht Frankfurt
FC Köln
2.2–1.6
xG
73%
Over 2.5
Elversberg
FC Augsburg
1.9–1.7
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Werder Bremen
Paderborn
1.9–1.2
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Hamburger SV
VfB Stuttgart
1.5–2.0
xG
67%
Over 2.5
FC Union Berlin
Borussia Dortmund
1.2–2.0
xG
61%
Over 2.5
FC Bayern München
RB Leipzig
3.3–1.1
xG
81%
Over 2.5
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
SC Freiburg
2.0–1.2
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Borussia Mönchengladbach
TSG Hoffenheim
1.7–1.9
xG
69%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420679006 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
FSV Mainz 05 are favourites. They win 40.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.6% for the draw and 34.2% for Schalke 04. Including the draw, FSV Mainz 05 avoid defeat 65.8% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.4% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (8.5%) and 2-1 (7.8%). The likeliest FSV Mainz 05 win is 1-2 (8.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 64.4% of simulations. Schalke 04 keep a clean sheet 19.1% of the time and FSV Mainz 05 21.9%.
The simulations average 3.22 goals: 1.54 for Schalke 04 and 1.68 for FSV Mainz 05. Over 1.5 goals lands 83.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 62.1% and over 3.5 goals 40.1%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
