We simulated Sunderland vs Leeds United 100,000 times. Sunderland won 35,160 of them (35.2%), the draw came up 29.9% of the time and Leeds United won 35%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.1%, while the likeliest Sunderland win is 1-0 (9%). Both teams score in 51.4% of simulations.
| Sunderland win | 35.2% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 29.9% |
| Leeds United win | 35% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.24 – 1.24 |
| Both teams to score | 51.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.9% |
| Sunderland score first | 44.6% |
| Leeds United score first | 45.3% |
| Sunderland clean sheet | 29.4% |
| Leeds United clean sheet | 29.3% |
Ipswich Town
Nottingham Forest
1.4–1.5
xG
56%
Over 2.5
Aston Villa
Manchester City
1.3–2.0
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
Everton
2.1–0.7
xG
52%
Over 2.5
Coventry City
Fulham
1.4–1.5
xG
53%
Over 2.5
Chelsea
Tottenham Hotspur
2.1–1.1
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Hull City
Brentford
1.2–1.7
xG
54%
Over 2.5
Crystal Palace
Newcastle United
1.7–1.6
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Manchester United
AFC Bournemouth
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420665670 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Sunderland are favourites. They win 35.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 29.9% for the draw and 35% for Leeds United. Including the draw, Sunderland avoid defeat 65.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14.1% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (10%) and 1-0 (9%). The likeliest Sunderland win is 1-0 (9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 51.4% of simulations. Sunderland keep a clean sheet 29.4% of the time and Leeds United 29.3%.
The simulations average 2.48 goals: 1.24 for Sunderland and 1.24 for Leeds United. Over 1.5 goals lands 72% of the time, over 2.5 goals 45% and over 3.5 goals 23.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
