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  1. Alpha
Beta Testing with Advanced & Season Ticket members

Sharp football picks with a public record

Goals and both-teams-to-score selections taken at opening prices, before the sharp market moves them. Published before kickoff, settled in public, every loss kept.

96 picks pending Last result 19 minutes ago Tracking since 22 Apr 2026 Flat 1u stakes
See every result
All time +339.4u +2.3% ROI · 14,754 settled
Last 30 days -2.9u -0.2% ROI · 1,326 settled
Last 7 days -3.6u -1.4% ROI · 254 settled
Narrow +18.0u +1.9% ROI · 924 settled

Upcoming picks

Kickoff times in Europe/London

Tomorrow

Daejeon Korail Yeoju Sejong South Korea K3 League Locked Locked Dalian Kuncheng City Meizhou Hakka China League One Locked Locked Haimen Codion Ganzhou Ruishi China League Two Locked Locked Hwacheon KSPO W Ho Chi Minh City W Asia AFC Women's Champions League Narrow Locked Locked Krasnodar W Yenisey W Russia Premier League Women Narrow Locked Locked Richmond United W UWC Ladies W South Africa Super League Women Locked Locked Karlsruher U19 Hoffenheim U19 Germany U19 Bundesliga Locked Locked Hertha U19 Chemnitzer FC U19 Germany U19 Bundesliga Locked Locked Spójnia Landek Szombierki Bytom Poland IV Liga: Śląska I Locked Locked Arezzo U19 Juve Stabia U19 Italy Primavera 3 Locked Locked Saarbrucken U19 Bayer Leverkusen U19 Germany U19 Bundesliga Narrow 2 picks locked 2 picks locked
96 picks already published

Showing the next 11 matches. Join the beta with Advanced or a Season Ticket to see every selection, the odds, and get alerts the moment new picks land.

Results

5,836 settled matching filters
All markets Goals BTTS Match result Won Lost Void Narrow only

Saturday 19 Sep

22W 41L 1V -2.3u
Şanlıurfaspor 1 Adana Demirspor 1 Turkey 2. Lig: Beyaz Home Win @ 1.36 Home Win 1.36 odds -1.00u Lost Hauts Lyonnais 1 Nîmes 3 France CFA Group C Narrow Home Win @ 3.94 Home Win 3.94 odds -1.00u Lost Peña Sport 2 Espanyol II 1 Spain Segunda Division RFEF: Group 2 Draw @ 3.40 Draw 3.40 odds -1.00u Lost Boston River 1 Atlético Progreso 2 Uruguay Primera Division Draw @ 3.44 Draw 3.44 odds -1.00u Lost Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0 Livyi Bereh 2 Ukraine Premier League Draw @ 3.48 Draw 3.48 odds -1.00u Lost Kvik Trondheim 0 NTNUI 2 Norway 3. Division - Group 2 Away Win @ 2.44 Away Win 2.44 odds +1.44u Won GC Mascara 3 RC Arbaâ 0 Algeria Ligue 2 Awarded Home Win @ 1.84 Home Win 1.84 odds +0.00u Void Troyes II 3 Andrézieux 2 France CFA Group C Narrow Home Win @ 3.50 Home Win 3.50 odds +2.50u Won MC Saïda 2 WA Mostaganem 2 Algeria Ligue 2 Home Win @ 1.90 Home Win 1.90 odds -1.00u Lost BKMA 1 Sardarapat 1 Armenia Premier League Away Win @ 2.40 Away Win 2.40 odds -1.00u Lost Rohrbach an der Lafnitz 3 Fürstenfeld 2 Austria Landesliga: Steiermark Narrow Away Win @ 3.37 Away Win 3.37 odds -1.00u Lost Roces U19 1 Real Oviedo U19 1 Spain División De Honor Juvenil - Group 1 Narrow Home Win @ 3.48 Home Win 3.48 odds -1.00u Lost Kelty Hearts 1 Edinburgh City 3 Scotland League Two Home Win @ 2.71 Home Win 2.71 odds -1.00u Lost Kosova 2 Wettswil-Bonstetten 1 Switzerland 1.Liga Classic Home Win @ 3.13 Home Win 3.13 odds +2.13u Won Lipno Stęszew 2 Baltyk Koszalin 1 Poland 3. Liga - Group 2 Away Win @ 2.88 Away Win 2.88 odds -1.00u Lost USV Iaşi 2 FC Bacău II 1 Romania 3. Liga: Series 1 Narrow Home Win @ 1.97 Home Win 1.97 odds +0.97u Won Merthyr Town 1 Truro City 1 England FA Cup Home Win @ 2.75 Home Win 2.75 odds -1.00u Lost Vitória de Sernache 2 Varzim 1 Portugal Taça De Portugal Draw @ 3.50 Draw 3.50 odds -1.00u Lost Zagora 5 Uljanik 0 Croatia Second NL Narrow Home Win @ 2.80 Home Win 2.80 odds +1.80u Won Leamington 1 Gainsborough Trinity 1 England FA Cup Away Win @ 2.50 Away Win 2.50 odds -1.00u Lost Famos Vojkovici 3 FK Romanija Pale 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina First League: RS Home Win @ 1.23 Home Win 1.23 odds +0.23u Won Alloa Athletic 1 East Kilbride 2 Scotland League One Home Win @ 3.00 Home Win 3.00 odds -1.00u Lost Lipany 3 Spišská Nová Ves 0 Slovakia 3. Liga - East Away Win @ 2.25 Away Win 2.25 odds -1.00u Lost Huima / Urho 3 GBK 5 Finland Kakkonen Home Win @ 1.81 Home Win 1.81 odds -1.00u Lost Elana Toruń 0 Lech Poznań II 0 Poland 3. Liga - Group 2 Away Win @ 2.50 Away Win 2.50 odds -1.00u Lost
Show older results Back to latest

Track record

Version 5 live since 28 Oct 2026
All picks (Wide) Narrow 1Version change

Cumulative profit at flat 1u stakes, by kickoff date. Numbered markers show where the system changed, so you can see which version produced which results. We keep the whole history rather than restarting the clock.

Version 5 so far +10.6u +3.4% ROI · 313 settled since 28 Oct 2026
Narrow +18.0u 35.0% strike · forward-tested since 14 Jul 2026
Strike rate 38.6% 5,660 won · 8,990 lost · 104 void
Average odds 3.15 across every settled pick

Daily resultsLast 12 weeks. 46 of 82 days in profit.

17 Aug to 8 Nov · Mon to Sun, top to bottom Loss   Profit

By versionEach version judged only on the picks it published.

5 Current · 28 Oct 2026

Version Five

+10.6u +3.4% ROI 313 settled
4 21 Oct 2026

Opening prices only

+10.7u +4.7% ROI 225 settled
3 26 Jul 2026

Results attributed by version

+146.3u +2.2% ROI 6,582 settled
2 23 Jul 2026

Second version — sharper, fewer selections

+21.6u +9.3% ROI 233 settled
1 22 Apr 2026

First published version

+150.2u +2.0% ROI 7,401 settled

By marketSelections with 10 or more settled picks, all versions.

Selection Settled Strike Avg odds Profit ROI
Under 2.5 Goals Total Goals 4,757 37.8% 2.84 +87.4u +1.8%
Over 2.5 Goals Total Goals 1,396 56.4% 1.92 +71.6u +5.1%
Both Teams To Score Both Teams To Score 1,665 42.1% 2.50 +57.8u +3.5%
Home Win Match Result 3,929 31.4% 4.47 +52.7u +1.3%
Away Win Match Result 1,185 39.0% 2.97 +44.2u +3.7%
Draw Match Result 722 31.4% 3.32 +28.9u +4.0%
Under 3.5 Goals Total Goals 677 51.8% 2.03 +18.6u +2.8%
No Both Teams To Score Both Teams To Score 68 49.3% 2.66 +17.1u +25.1%
Under 4.5 Goals Total Goals 13 61.5% 2.09 +4.6u +35.2%
Under 1.5 Goals Total Goals 41 22.0% 3.26 -11.4u -27.8%
Over 4.5 Goals Total Goals 301 29.0% 3.11 -31.9u -10.6%

How Alpha works

01

We price every match

Our probability model prices the goals and both-teams-to-score markets for thousands of matches a week.

02

We catch prices early

When a bookmaker opens a market well above our fair price, before the sharp market has shaped it, the pick is published.

03

Tested on real prices

Every rule passed a backtest on real bookmaker prices from 2023 to 2026 and a live shadow run before going into the feed.

04

Settled in public

Picks are timestamped and never edited. Each one settles at the odds we published, and losses stay on the record.

Alpha is in beta

We're testing Alpha with Advanced and Season Ticket members. The record is real, but we're still tuning which markets go in and how tightly we filter. Every change is logged below and marked on the chart, so nothing moves quietly. If you're testing with us and something looks wrong, tell us. That feedback shapes what ships next.

Version historyNothing already published is ever edited. When the system changes, it's logged here.

  1. 5

    Version Five

    Current

    The feed now publishes only selections that passed a full market-price backtest (2023–2026, real bookmaker prices) and a live shadow run. Picks are initially goals and both-teams-to-score, alerted at a bookmaker's opening price. Every pick is settled at the price we alerted, so only bet at that price or better. Narrow replaces High Conviction and is the strongest subset; Wide is the full feed. Picks already published settle as normal.

  2. 4

    Opening prices only

    Selections are now only published while the bookmaker is still at (or below) the price it opened with. Our record shows selections at opening prices have been consistently profitable, while prices that had already lengthened before we published were not. Fewer selections per day as a result.

Show 3 earlier versions
  1. 3

    Results attributed by version

    Every selection is now labelled with the version of the system that produced it, so each version can be judged on the results it actually delivered. Nothing has been removed from the published record.

  2. 2

    Second version — sharper, fewer selections

    Every system was re-validated from scratch against data it had never seen, with tighter qualifying standards and new timing and confidence checks. The result: fewer selections, higher average quality, and the introduction of the high conviction subset.

  3. 1

    First published version

    The first automated selections went live, published before kickoff and settled in public. Higher volume than the current version, and profitable overall.

Questions

Who can use Alpha right now?

Alpha is in beta with Advanced and Season Ticket members. They see every selection and the published odds before kickoff, and can get new selections as alerts in the OddAlerts app. Everyone can see the full results and track record on this page.

How are the selections chosen?

Our probability model prices the goals and both-teams-to-score markets for thousands of matches. When a bookmaker opens a market at a price clearly above our fair price, before the sharpest bookmakers have shaped it, the selection is published. Every rule in the feed passed a backtest on real bookmaker prices from 2023 to 2026, then a live shadow run, before it went in.

What are Wide and Narrow?

Wide is the full feed. Narrow is the part of it with the biggest gap between the price and our fair price: fewer selections, built to be manageable to bet. You can filter to Narrow on this page and in your alerts.

What odds do you settle at?

At the odds shown when the selection was published. Opening prices move quickly, so if you cannot get a similar price, it is not the bet we published. Alerts are the best way to see selections while the price is still there.

How many selections do you publish?

It depends on the fixture list, and weekends are much busier than midweek. Selections only go out while opening prices are available, so they arrive through the day rather than in one batch.

What do the units mean?

Every selection is recorded at a flat one unit stake, win or lose. A unit is whatever you decide it is worth. Flat staking keeps the record honest, with no staking plan inflating the returns.

What happens if a match is postponed?

It is voided: stake returned, recorded as a void, no effect on profit. Postponed, abandoned and cancelled matches are handled automatically so nothing sits unresolved on the record.

Why has the record changed over time?

Because the system changed, and every change is logged. Each version is listed with its own results and marked on the chart, and nothing already published is ever edited or removed.

Can I lose money following this?

Yes. Losing runs are a normal part of any profitable betting approach, and you can see the losing days on the chart and calendar. Past results are not a guarantee of future returns.

Why is it called Alpha?

Alpha is the return you make above what the market prices in. The job here is to find where the market is wrong often enough to be worth betting, and publish it before kickoff so the claim can be checked.

More from OddAlerts

Disclaimer: This tool is for information only and is not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org