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Goals and both-teams-to-score selections taken at opening prices, before the sharp market moves them. Published before kickoff, settled in public, every loss kept.
Al Ahli Tripoli
Al Shomooa
Locked
Locked
Parndorf
Wienerberg
Locked
Locked
Madureira U20
Sampaio Corrêa RJ U20
Locked
Locked
Grenoble Foot 38
Reims
2 picks locked
2 picks locked
Willem II
PEC Zwolle
Locked
Locked
Lierse Kempenzonen U21
RFC de Liege U21
Locked
Locked
Chambly
US Chantilly
Locked
Locked
Llandudno
The New Saints
Locked
Locked
Glebe North
St Mochtas
Locked
Locked
Paris SG W
Le Havre W
Locked
Locked
Guangxi Pingguo W
1
Shandong Sports Lottery W
0
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.37
Over 2.5 Goals
2.37
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Nakhonratchasima Mazda FC
2
Pattaya United
0
Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.05
Under 2.5 Goals
2.05
odds
+1.05u
Won
Rukh Vynnyky
1
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1
Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.83
Under 3.5 Goals
1.83
odds
+0.83u
Won
Rukh Vynnyky
1
Dinaz Vyshhorod
1
Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.16
Under 2.5 Goals
3.16
odds
+2.16u
Won
EI San Martin
1
Praviano
0
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
2.05
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Villanovense
5
Jerez
1
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
2.05
odds
+1.05u
Won
3K
2
Murang'a SEAL
1
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.29
Over 2.5 Goals
2.29
odds
+1.30u
Won
Atyrau
2
Irtysh
3
Away Win @ 1.73
Away Win
1.73
odds
+0.73u
Won
Club Atlético Central
1
Tamaraceite
0
Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.25
Under 2.5 Goals
2.25
odds
+1.25u
Won
Odense Q W
0
ASA W
1
Away Win @ 2.18
Away Win
2.18
odds
+1.18u
Won
Kamphaeng Phet
1
Phichit United
4
Away Win @ 2.05
Away Win
2.05
odds
+1.05u
Won
OFK Malženice
3
Zlaté Moravce
0
Away Win @ 2.43
Away Win
2.43
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Meteor Praha
2
Sokol Hostoun
4
Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.00
Under 3.5 Goals
2.00
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Lucky Mile
3
3 Sing
0
Away Win @ 2.48
Away Win
2.48
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Omiya Ardija Ventus
1
Cerezo Osaka W
2
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.35
Over 2.5 Goals
2.35
odds
+1.30u
Won
Tapachula Soconusco F.C.
1
H2O Purépechas
0
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.35
Over 2.5 Goals
2.35
odds
-1.00u
Lost
DC United
0
Cincinnati
2
Under 3.5 Goals @ 1.81
Under 3.5 Goals
1.81
odds
+0.81u
Won
Atlético San Luis W
0
América W
7
Both Teams To Score @ 2.10
Both Teams To Score
2.10
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Cobras Fútbol Premier
2
Cachanillas
3
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.60
Over 2.5 Goals
1.60
odds
+0.60u
Won
Colina
1
Santiago Morning
1
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10
Over 2.5 Goals
2.10
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Sporting Escaldes
1
CE Casa de Portugal
1
Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.57
Over 2.5 Goals
1.57
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Excursionistas
4
Sportivo Italiano
0
Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.90
Under 2.5 Goals
1.90
odds
-1.00u
Lost
ES Sétif
1
CR Temouchent
2
Both Teams To Score @ 2.75
Both Teams To Score
2.75
odds
+1.75u
Won
Kfar Saba 1928
1
Maccabi Ashdod
3
Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05
Over 2.5 Goals
2.05
odds
+1.05u
Won
SK Rapid
5
Austria Lustenau
1
Under 2.5 Goals @ 3.14
Under 2.5 Goals
3.14
odds
-1.00u
Lost
Cumulative profit at flat 1u stakes, by kickoff date. Numbered markers show where the system changed, so you can see which version produced which results. We keep the whole history rather than restarting the clock.
Our probability model prices the goals and both-teams-to-score markets for thousands of matches a week.
When a bookmaker opens a market well above our fair price, before the sharp market has shaped it, the pick is published.
Every rule passed a backtest on real bookmaker prices from 2023 to 2026 and a live shadow run before going into the feed.
Picks are timestamped and never edited. Each one settles at the odds we published, and losses stay on the record.
We're testing Alpha with Advanced and Season Ticket members. The record is real, but we're still tuning which markets go in and how tightly we filter. Every change is logged below and marked on the chart, so nothing moves quietly. If you're testing with us and something looks wrong, tell us. That feedback shapes what ships next.
The feed now publishes only selections that passed a full market-price backtest (2023–2026, real bookmaker prices) and a live shadow run. Picks are initially goals and both-teams-to-score, alerted at a bookmaker's opening price. Every pick is settled at the price we alerted, so only bet at that price or better. Narrow replaces High Conviction and is the strongest subset; Wide is the full feed. Picks already published settle as normal.
Selections are now only published while the bookmaker is still at (or below) the price it opened with. Our record shows selections at opening prices have been consistently profitable, while prices that had already lengthened before we published were not. Fewer selections per day as a result.
Every selection is now labelled with the version of the system that produced it, so each version can be judged on the results it actually delivered. Nothing has been removed from the published record.
Every system was re-validated from scratch against data it had never seen, with tighter qualifying standards and new timing and confidence checks. The result: fewer selections, higher average quality, and the introduction of the high conviction subset.
The first automated selections went live, published before kickoff and settled in public. Higher volume than the current version, and profitable overall.
Alpha is in beta with Advanced and Season Ticket members. They see every selection and the published odds before kickoff, and can get new selections as alerts in the OddAlerts app. Everyone can see the full results and track record on this page.
Our probability model prices the goals and both-teams-to-score markets for thousands of matches. When a bookmaker opens a market at a price clearly above our fair price, before the sharpest bookmakers have shaped it, the selection is published. Every rule in the feed passed a backtest on real bookmaker prices from 2023 to 2026, then a live shadow run, before it went in.
Wide is the full feed. Narrow is the part of it with the biggest gap between the price and our fair price: fewer selections, built to be manageable to bet. You can filter to Narrow on this page and in your alerts.
At the odds shown when the selection was published. Opening prices move quickly, so if you cannot get a similar price, it is not the bet we published. Alerts are the best way to see selections while the price is still there.
It depends on the fixture list, and weekends are much busier than midweek. Selections only go out while opening prices are available, so they arrive through the day rather than in one batch.
Every selection is recorded at a flat one unit stake, win or lose. A unit is whatever you decide it is worth. Flat staking keeps the record honest, with no staking plan inflating the returns.
It is voided: stake returned, recorded as a void, no effect on profit. Postponed, abandoned and cancelled matches are handled automatically so nothing sits unresolved on the record.
Because the system changed, and every change is logged. Each version is listed with its own results and marked on the chart, and nothing already published is ever edited or removed.
Yes. Losing runs are a normal part of any profitable betting approach, and you can see the losing days on the chart and calendar. Past results are not a guarantee of future returns.
Alpha is the return you make above what the market prices in. The job here is to find where the market is wrong often enough to be worth betting, and publish it before kickoff so the claim can be checked.
Disclaimer: This tool is for information only and is not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org
