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  1. Alpha
Beta Testing with Advanced & Season Ticket members

Sharp football picks with a public record

Goals and both-teams-to-score selections taken at opening prices, before the sharp market moves them. Published before kickoff, settled in public, every loss kept.

46 picks pending Last result 1 hour ago Tracking since 22 Apr 2026 Flat 1u stakes
See every result
All time +351.2u +2.4% ROI · 14,835 settled
Last 30 days +9.9u +0.7% ROI · 1,389 settled
Last 7 days +3.6u +1.4% ROI · 257 settled
Narrow +25.1u +2.7% ROI · 945 settled

Upcoming picks

Kickoff times in Europe/London

Tomorrow

San Diego Sporting KC United States Major League Soccer Locked Locked Leones de Rosario Sportivo Barracas Argentina Primera C Narrow Locked Locked La Tribu de Cd. Juárez Cañoneros Marina Mexico Liga Premier Serie A Narrow Locked Locked Cariari Pococí Grecia Costa Rica Liga de Ascenso Locked Locked Hangzhou Linping Wuyue Dalian Kewei China League Two Locked Locked Zhejiang Henan Songshan Longmen China Super League Locked Locked Yunnan Yukun Wuhan Three Towns China Super League Narrow Locked Locked Velké Meziříčí Chotebor Czech Republic 4. Liga Division D Locked Locked AEK Athens U19 Levadiakos U19 Greece Super League K19 Narrow 2 picks locked 2 picks locked Persikad Persiku Kudus Indonesia Indonesia Championship Narrow Locked Locked Hapoel Ironi Arraba Hapoel Umm al-Fahm Israel Liga Alef - North Locked Locked
46 picks already published

Showing the next 11 matches. Join the beta with Advanced or a Season Ticket to see every selection, the odds, and get alerts the moment new picks land.

Results

1,827 settled matching filters
All markets Goals BTTS Match result Won Lost Void Narrow only

Saturday 23 May

10W 19L 0.0u
Mattersburg 2020 2 Neudorf / Parndorf 1 Austria Landesliga: Burgenland Narrow Home Win @ 2.90 Home Win 2.90 odds +1.90u Won Honka W 1 HJS W 0 Finland Ykkönen Women Narrow Home Win @ 2.02 Home Win 2.02 odds +1.02u Won Hvíti riddarinn 2 Thróttur Vogar 0 Iceland 2. Deild Narrow Home Win @ 3.60 Home Win 3.60 odds +2.60u Won Kormákur / Hvöt 4 Kári 1 Iceland 2. Deild Narrow Away Win @ 2.65 Away Win 2.65 odds -1.00u Lost TP-47 4 Huima / Urho 4 Finland Kakkonen Narrow Away Win @ 3.18 Away Win 3.18 odds -1.00u Lost Goias U20 1 Cerrado U20 1 Brazil Goiano U20 Narrow Home Win @ 1.95 Home Win 1.95 odds -1.00u Lost Atmosfera 1 Garliava 1 Lithuania 1. Lyga Narrow Away Win @ 2.91 Away Win 2.91 odds -1.00u Lost Belshina 5 Naftan 1 Belarus Vysshaya Liga Narrow Home Win @ 2.47 Home Win 2.47 odds +1.47u Won Pinzgau Saalfelden 1 TSV St. Johann 4 Austria Regionalliga: West Narrow Home Win @ 4.57 Home Win 4.57 odds -1.00u Lost Pogoń Nowe Skalmierzyce 3 Lech Poznań II 0 Poland 3. Liga - Group 2 Narrow Away Win @ 2.93 Away Win 2.93 odds -1.00u Lost Persija 3 Semen Padang 0 Indonesia Liga 1 Narrow Under 3.5 Goals @ 2.88 Under 3.5 Goals 2.88 odds +1.88u Won Persita 1 Persis Solo 3 Indonesia Liga 1 Narrow Home Win @ 3.99 Home Win 3.99 odds -1.00u Lost Bulleen Lions 1 Manningham United Blues 2 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 Narrow Home Win @ 2.04 Home Win 2.04 odds -1.00u Lost Hakoah Sydney U20 1 Dulwich Hill U20 1 Australia NSW League One Youth Narrow Home Win @ 2.10 Home Win 2.10 odds -1.00u Lost Brisbane Knights 1 Pine Hills 2 Australia Queensland Premier League 2 Narrow Home Win @ 3.47 Home Win 3.47 odds -1.00u Lost Subiaco 0 Curtin University 2 Australia Western Australia State League 1 Narrow Home Win @ 3.40 Home Win 3.40 odds -1.00u Lost MetroStars 0 Campbelltown City W 1 Australia South Australia NPL Women Narrow Away Win @ 4.10 Away Win 4.10 odds -1.00u Lost Holland Park Hawks 3 SC Wanderers 2 Australia Queensland Premier League Narrow Home Win @ 3.25 Home Win 3.25 odds +2.25u Won Altona Magic U23 1 Hume City U23 3 Australia Victoria NPL Youth League Narrow Home Win @ 3.53 Home Win 3.53 odds -1.00u Lost Campbelltown City 2 Sturt Lions 0 Australia Npl South Australian Narrow Away Win @ 3.26 Away Win 3.26 odds -1.00u Lost North Sunshine Eagles 0 Langwarrin 1 Australia Victoria Premier League 2 Narrow Home Win @ 4.10 Home Win 4.10 odds -1.00u Lost Queanbeyan City 3 Gungahlin Juventus 1 Australia Capital Territory Narrow Away Win @ 3.74 Away Win 3.74 odds -1.00u Lost Edgeworth Eagles Res. 1 Lambton Jaffas Res. 2 Australia Northern NSW Reserve League Narrow Away Win @ 3.21 Away Win 3.21 odds +2.21u Won Queanbeyan City U23 1 Canberra Juventus U23 1 Australia Capital Territory NPL Youth League Narrow Away Win @ 2.18 Away Win 2.18 odds -1.00u Lost

Friday 22 May

7W 7L +8.3u
Deportivo Binacional 0 Sport Huancayo II 1 Peru Segunda Division Narrow Home Win @ 3.40 Home Win 3.40 odds -1.00u Lost
Show older results Back to latest

Track record

Version 5 live since 28 Oct 2026
All picks (Wide) Narrow 1Version change

Cumulative profit at flat 1u stakes, by kickoff date. Numbered markers show where the system changed, so you can see which version produced which results. We keep the whole history rather than restarting the clock.

Version 5 so far +22.4u +5.7% ROI · 394 settled since 28 Oct 2026
Narrow +25.1u 35.4% strike · forward-tested since 14 Jul 2026
Strike rate 38.7% 5,701 won · 9,031 lost · 103 void
Beat the closing price 65% of 102 current-version picks vs Pinnacle's close

Daily resultsLast 12 weeks. 47 of 83 days in profit.

17 Aug to 8 Nov · Mon to Sun, top to bottom Loss   Profit

By versionEach version judged only on the picks it published.

5 Current · 28 Oct 2026

Version Five

+22.4u +5.7% ROI 394 settled
4 21 Oct 2026

Opening prices only

+10.7u +4.7% ROI 225 settled
3 26 Jul 2026

Results attributed by version

+146.3u +2.2% ROI 6,582 settled
2 23 Jul 2026

Second version — sharper, fewer selections

+21.6u +9.3% ROI 233 settled
1 22 Apr 2026

First published version

+150.2u +2.0% ROI 7,401 settled

By marketSelections with 10 or more settled picks, all versions.

Selection Settled Strike Avg odds Profit ROI
Under 2.5 Goals Total Goals 4,775 37.8% 2.84 +95.8u +2.0%
Over 2.5 Goals Total Goals 1,416 56.5% 1.93 +74.9u +5.3%
Both Teams To Score Both Teams To Score 1,681 42.1% 2.50 +57.6u +3.4%
Home Win Match Result 3,929 31.4% 4.47 +52.7u +1.3%
Away Win Match Result 1,185 39.0% 2.97 +44.2u +3.7%
Draw Match Result 722 31.4% 3.32 +28.9u +4.0%
Under 3.5 Goals Total Goals 687 51.8% 2.04 +19.8u +2.9%
No Both Teams To Score Both Teams To Score 79 48.1% 2.65 +16.3u +20.6%
Under 4.5 Goals Total Goals 19 57.9% 2.12 +4.5u +23.9%
Under 1.5 Goals Total Goals 41 22.0% 3.26 -11.4u -27.8%
Over 4.5 Goals Total Goals 301 29.0% 3.11 -31.9u -10.6%

How Alpha works

01

We price every match

Our probability model prices the goals and both-teams-to-score markets for thousands of matches a week.

02

We catch prices early

When a bookmaker opens a market well above our fair price, before the sharp market has shaped it, the pick is published.

03

Tested on real prices

Every rule passed a backtest on real bookmaker prices from 2023 to 2026 and a live shadow run before going into the feed.

04

Settled in public

Picks are timestamped and never edited. Each one settles at the odds we published, and losses stay on the record.

Alpha is in beta

We're testing Alpha with Advanced and Season Ticket members. The record is real, but we're still tuning which markets go in and how tightly we filter. Every change is logged below and marked on the chart, so nothing moves quietly. If you're testing with us and something looks wrong, tell us. That feedback shapes what ships next.

Version historyNothing already published is ever edited. When the system changes, it's logged here.

  1. 5

    Version Five

    Current

    The feed now publishes only selections that passed a full market-price backtest (2023–2026, real bookmaker prices) and a live shadow run. Picks are initially goals and both-teams-to-score, alerted at a bookmaker's opening price. Every pick is settled at the price we alerted, so only bet at that price or better. Narrow replaces High Conviction and is the strongest subset; Wide is the full feed. Picks already published settle as normal.

  2. 4

    Opening prices only

    Selections are now only published while the bookmaker is still at (or below) the price it opened with. Our record shows selections at opening prices have been consistently profitable, while prices that had already lengthened before we published were not. Fewer selections per day as a result.

Show 3 earlier versions
  1. 3

    Results attributed by version

    Every selection is now labelled with the version of the system that produced it, so each version can be judged on the results it actually delivered. Nothing has been removed from the published record.

  2. 2

    Second version — sharper, fewer selections

    Every system was re-validated from scratch against data it had never seen, with tighter qualifying standards and new timing and confidence checks. The result: fewer selections, higher average quality, and the introduction of the high conviction subset.

  3. 1

    First published version

    The first automated selections went live, published before kickoff and settled in public. Higher volume than the current version, and profitable overall.

Questions

Who can use Alpha right now?

Alpha is in beta with Advanced and Season Ticket members. They see every selection and the published odds before kickoff, and can get new selections as alerts in the OddAlerts app. Everyone can see the full results and track record on this page.

How are the selections chosen?

Our probability model prices the goals and both-teams-to-score markets for thousands of matches. When a bookmaker opens a market at a price clearly above our fair price, before the sharpest bookmakers have shaped it, the selection is published. Every rule in the feed passed a backtest on real bookmaker prices from 2023 to 2026, then a live shadow run, before it went in.

What are Wide and Narrow?

Wide is the full feed. Narrow is the part of it with the biggest gap between the price and our fair price: fewer selections, built to be manageable to bet. You can filter to Narrow on this page and in your alerts.

What odds do you settle at?

At the odds shown when the selection was published. Opening prices move quickly, so if you cannot get a similar price, it is not the bet we published. Alerts are the best way to see selections while the price is still there.

How many selections do you publish?

It depends on the fixture list, and weekends are much busier than midweek. Selections only go out while opening prices are available, so they arrive through the day rather than in one batch.

What do the units mean?

Every selection is recorded at a flat one unit stake, win or lose. A unit is whatever you decide it is worth. Flat staking keeps the record honest, with no staking plan inflating the returns.

What happens if a match is postponed?

It is voided: stake returned, recorded as a void, no effect on profit. Postponed, abandoned and cancelled matches are handled automatically so nothing sits unresolved on the record.

Why has the record changed over time?

Because the system changed, and every change is logged. Each version is listed with its own results and marked on the chart, and nothing already published is ever edited or removed.

Can I lose money following this?

Yes. Losing runs are a normal part of any profitable betting approach, and you can see the losing days on the chart and calendar. Past results are not a guarantee of future returns.

Why is it called Alpha?

Alpha is the return you make above what the market prices in. The job here is to find where the market is wrong often enough to be worth betting, and publish it before kickoff so the claim can be checked.

More from OddAlerts

Disclaimer: This tool is for information only and is not betting advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Never stake more than you can afford to lose. 18+ · BeGambleAware.org