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Liga Profesional de Fútbol Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Find value bets for Liga Profesional de Fútbol fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Aldosivi vs Banfield

poor

Sat 5th, 17:30

FT Result

Away

3.35 Fair: 3.08 Betfair Exchange

+8.77%

Model: 32.5%

HT Result

Draw

1.98 Fair: 1.83 Pinnacle

+8.2%

Model: 54.7%

Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre

poor

Sat 5th, 18:30

FT Result

Away

3.20 Fair: 2.77 Betfair Exchange

+15.52%

Model: 36.2%

BTTS

Yes

2.28 Fair: 2.02 Betfair Exchange

+12.87%

Model: 49.4%

HT Result

Away

4.14 Fair: 4.05 Pinnacle

+2.22%

Model: 24.7%

HT Result

Draw

1.92 Fair: 1.91 Pinnacle

+0.52%

Model: 52.4%

Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Boca Juniors

poor

Sat 5th, 20:30

FT Result

Home

3.35 Fair: 3.18 Betfair Exchange

+5.35%

Model: 31.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.06 Fair: 1.96 Pinnacle

+5.1%

Model: 51.2%

BTTS

Yes

2.10 Fair: 2.05 Kambi Group

+2.44%

Model: 48.9%

FT Result

Away

2.60 Fair: 2.54 Bet365

+2.36%

Model: 39.4%

San Lorenzo vs Talleres Córdoba

poor

Sat 5th, 23:00

FT Result

Away

3.40 Fair: 2.98 Betfair Exchange

+14.09%

Model: 33.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.24 Fair: 1.99 Betfair Exchange

+12.56%

Model: 50.4%

HT Result

Draw

1.97 Fair: 1.88 Pinnacle

+4.79%

Model: 53.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.40 Fair: 1.39 Bet365

+0.72%

Model: 71.8%

Vélez Sarsfield vs Estudiantes

poor

Sun 6th, 01:15

FT Result

Away

3.60 Fair: 3.10 Betfair Exchange

+16.13%

Model: 32.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.00 Fair: 1.94 Pinnacle

+3.09%

Model: 51.5%

BTTS

Yes

2.18 Fair: 2.16 Betfair Exchange

+0.93%

Model: 46.3%

Rosario Central vs Newell's Old Boys

poor

Sun 6th, 18:45

FT Result

Away

7.00 Fair: 6.14 Bet365

+14.01%

Model: 16.3%

BTTS

Yes

2.50 Fair: 2.35 FanDuel

+6.38%

Model: 42.5%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.31 Bet365

+3.82%

Model: 76.3%

Central Cordoba SdE vs Independiente

poor

Sun 6th, 21:00

BTTS

Yes

2.20 Fair: 1.99 FanDuel

+10.55%

Model: 50.3%

FT Result

Home

3.80 Fair: 3.47 Kambi Group

+9.51%

Model: 28.9%

Lanús vs Defensa y Justicia

poor

Sun 6th, 21:00

FT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 4.36 Bet365

+26.15%

Model: 22.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.08 Fair: 1.97 Kambi Group

+5.58%

Model: 50.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.10 Fair: 2.03 Pinnacle

+3.45%

Model: 49.2%

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 5.82 Pinnacle

+3.09%

Model: 17.2%

River Plate vs Independiente Rivadavia

poor

Sun 6th, 23:15

FT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 3.78 Betfair Exchange

+45.5%

Model: 26.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.16 Fair: 1.83 Kambi Group

+18.03%

Model: 54.5%

HT Result

Away

6.00 Fair: 5.65 Bet365

+6.19%

Model: 17.7%

FT Result

Draw

3.59 Fair: 3.56 Pinnacle

+0.84%

Model: 28.1%

Racing Club vs Atlético Tucumán

poor

Mon 7th, 01:30

FT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 4.02 Bet365

+36.82%

Model: 24.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.06 Fair: 1.89 Kambi Group

+8.99%

Model: 52.8%

HT Result

Away

5.70 Fair: 5.38 1xBet

+5.95%

Model: 18.6%

Barracas Central vs Argentinos Juniors

poor

Mon 7th, 23:00

FT Result

Home

4.50 Fair: 3.86 Bet365

+16.58%

Model: 25.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.37 Fair: 2.16 Bet365

+9.72%

Model: 46.2%

HT Result

Home

5.26 Fair: 4.87 Pinnacle

+8.01%

Model: 20.6%

Unión Santa Fe vs Instituto

poor

Tue 8th, 01:15

FT Result

Home

2.62 Fair: 2.45 Bet365

+6.94%

Model: 40.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.03 Fair: 1.96 Pinnacle

+3.57%

Model: 51.1%

Newell's Old Boys vs Vélez Sarsfield

poor

Fri 11th, 21:00

HT Result

Draw

1.95 Fair: 1.84 Bet365

+5.98%

Model: 54.3%

BTTS

No

1.76 Fair: 1.69 Kambi Group

+4.14%

Model: 59.1%

FT Result

Home

3.05 Fair: 2.99 Kambi Group

+2.01%

Model: 33.4%

Defensa y Justicia vs Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza

poor

Fri 11th, 23:15

FT Result

Home

2.26 Fair: 2.08 1xBet

+8.65%

Model: 48%

Estudiantes vs Platense

poor

Sat 12th, 18:45

FT Result

Away

5.75 Fair: 4.48 Bet365

+28.35%

Model: 22.3%

BTTS

Yes

2.37 Fair: 2.20 Bet365

+7.73%

Model: 45.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.10 Fair: 2.00 Bet365

+5%

Model: 50%

HT Result

Draw

2.00 Fair: 1.93 Bet365

+3.63%

Model: 51.7%

Independiente Rivadavia vs Aldosivi

poor

Sat 12th, 18:45

FT Result

Away

8.50 Fair: 6.38 Bet365

+33.23%

Model: 15.7%

HT Result

Away

7.50 Fair: 6.73 Bet365

+11.44%

Model: 14.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.62 Fair: 2.45 Bet365

+6.94%

Model: 40.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.20 Fair: 2.07 Bet365

+6.28%

Model: 48.4%

Atlético Tucumán vs River Plate

poor

Sat 12th, 21:30

HT Result

Home

5.00 Fair: 4.65 Bet365

+7.53%

Model: 21.5%

HT Result

Draw

1.90 Fair: 1.85 Bet365

+2.7%

Model: 54.1%

Talleres Córdoba vs Unión Santa Fe

poor

Sun 13th, 00:00

FT Result

Away

3.64 Fair: 2.99 1xBet

+21.74%

Model: 33.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.66 Fair: 1.61 Bet365

+3.11%

Model: 62.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.00 Fair: 1.95 Bet365

+2.56%

Model: 51.2%

Tigre vs Rosario Central

poor

Sun 13th, 18:45

HT Result

Draw

1.95 Fair: 1.87 Bet365

+4.28%

Model: 53.5%

Sarmiento vs Belgrano

poor

Sun 13th, 18:45

FT Result

Home

3.21 Fair: 3.02 1xBet

+6.29%

Model: 33.1%

Argentinos Juniors vs Gimnasia La Plata

poor

Sun 13th, 21:00

FT Result

Home

1.69 Fair: 1.61 1xBet

+4.97%

Model: 62%

Independiente vs San Lorenzo

poor

Sun 13th, 23:15

FT Result

Away

4.50 Fair: 4.42 Bet365

+1.81%

Model: 22.6%

FT Result

Home

2.06 Fair: 2.03 1xBet

+1.48%

Model: 49.3%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.40 Fair: 1.39 Bet365

+0.72%

Model: 71.9%

Huracán vs Racing Club

poor

Mon 14th, 01:30

FT Result

Home

2.90 Fair: 2.36 1xBet

+22.88%

Model: 42.4%

HT Result

Home

3.75 Fair: 3.63 Bet365

+3.31%

Model: 27.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.37 Fair: 2.33 Bet365

+1.72%

Model: 43%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.40 Fair: 1.39 Bet365

+0.72%

Model: 72.1%

Deportivo Riestra vs Lanús

poor

Mon 14th, 23:00

FT Result

Home

3.26 Fair: 2.49 1xBet

+30.92%

Model: 40.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.50 Fair: 1.38 Bet365

+8.7%

Model: 72.4%

HT Result

Draw

1.83 Fair: 1.75 Bet365

+4.57%

Model: 57.1%

HT Result

Home

4.00 Fair: 3.88 Bet365

+3.09%

Model: 25.8%

Banfield vs Barracas Central

poor

Mon 14th, 23:00

FT Result

Away

3.85 Fair: 3.49 1xBet

+10.32%

Model: 28.7%

HT Result

Draw

1.90 Fair: 1.83 Bet365

+3.83%

Model: 54.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.25 Fair: 2.19 Bet365

+2.74%

Model: 45.7%

Instituto vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto

poor

Tue 15th, 01:15

FT Result

Away

10.00 Fair: 6.23 Bet365

+60.51%

Model: 16.1%

HT Result

Away

10.00 Fair: 7.06 Bet365

+41.64%

Model: 14.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.00 Fair: 2.41 Bet365

+24.48%

Model: 41.5%

BTTS

Yes

2.75 Fair: 2.37 Bet365

+16.03%

Model: 42.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.10 Fair: 1.98 Bet365

+6.06%

Model: 50.5%

FT Result

Draw

4.01 Fair: 3.93 1xBet

+2.04%

Model: 25.4%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.