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Serie A Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Serie A

Find value bets for Serie A fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Botafogo vs Mirassol

medium

Wed 1st, 23:30

HT Result

Home

3.02 Fair: 2.71 Pinnacle

+11.44%

Model: 36.9%

FT Result

Home

2.34 Fair: 2.11 Betfair Exchange

+10.9%

Model: 47.4%

BTTS

No

2.08 Fair: 1.97 Betfair Exchange

+5.58%

Model: 50.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.36 Fair: 1.35 Bet365

+0.74%

Model: 74.1%

Internacional vs São Paulo

medium

Wed 1st, 23:30

FT Result

Home

2.34 Fair: 2.10 Betfair Exchange

+11.43%

Model: 47.6%

HT Result

Home

2.93 Fair: 2.66 Pinnacle

+10.15%

Model: 37.6%

BTTS

No

2.02 Fair: 1.96 Betfair Exchange

+3.06%

Model: 51%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.38 Fair: 1.35 Kambi Group

+2.22%

Model: 74.2%

Bahia vs Athletico PR

medium

Thu 2nd, 00:00

FT Result

Home

1.95 Fair: 1.70 Betfair Exchange

+14.71%

Model: 58.8%

HT Result

Home

2.69 Fair: 2.45 Pinnacle

+9.8%

Model: 40.8%

BTTS

No

1.96 Fair: 1.92 Betfair Exchange

+2.08%

Model: 52%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.23 Fair: 1.21 1xBet

+1.65%

Model: 82.4%

Cruzeiro vs Vitória

medium

Thu 2nd, 00:00

HT Result

Away

7.01 Fair: 5.50 Pinnacle

+27.45%

Model: 18.2%

BTTS

No

1.80 Fair: 1.70 Betfair Exchange

+5.88%

Model: 58.9%

Coritiba vs Vasco da Gama

medium

Thu 2nd, 00:30

FT Result

Home

2.66 Fair: 2.32 Betfair Exchange

+14.66%

Model: 43.1%

HT Result

Home

3.38 Fair: 3.04 Pinnacle

+11.18%

Model: 32.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.42 Fair: 1.41 1xBet

+0.71%

Model: 71%

Fluminense vs Corinthians

medium

Thu 2nd, 01:30

FT Result

Away

5.40 Fair: 4.86 Betfair Exchange

+11.11%

Model: 20.6%

HT Result

Away

5.37 Fair: 4.95 Pinnacle

+8.48%

Model: 20.2%

Chapecoense vs Atlético Mineiro

medium

Thu 2nd, 23:00

FT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.37 Betfair Exchange

+30.8%

Model: 42.2%

HT Result

Home

3.74 Fair: 2.98 Pinnacle

+25.5%

Model: 33.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.57 Fair: 1.39 1xBet

+12.95%

Model: 71.8%

BTTS

No

1.96 Fair: 1.80 Betfair Exchange

+8.89%

Model: 55.5%

FT Result

Draw

3.40 Fair: 3.38 1xBet

+0.59%

Model: 29.6%

medium

Thu 2nd, 23:00

FT Result

Away

7.20 Fair: 4.77 Betfair Exchange

+50.94%

Model: 21%

HT Result

Away

6.36 Fair: 4.91 Pinnacle

+29.53%

Model: 20.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.50 Fair: 2.13 WilliamHill

+17.37%

Model: 47%

FT Result

Draw

4.40 Fair: 3.83 Betfair Exchange

+14.88%

Model: 26.1%

BTTS

No

1.94 Fair: 1.86 Betfair Exchange

+4.3%

Model: 53.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.41 Fair: 2.33 Pinnacle

+3.43%

Model: 43%

Bragantino vs Flamengo

medium

Fri 3rd, 01:30

HT Result

Home

4.83 Fair: 3.62 Pinnacle

+33.43%

Model: 27.6%

FT Result

Home

4.25 Fair: 3.44 Kambi Group

+23.55%

Model: 29.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.85 Fair: 1.78 Kambi Group

+3.93%

Model: 56.3%

Palmeiras vs Grêmio

medium

Fri 3rd, 01:30

HT Result

Away

6.57 Fair: 5.49 Pinnacle

+19.67%

Model: 18.2%

BTTS

No

1.89 Fair: 1.84 Kambi Group

+2.72%

Model: 54.4%

FT Result

Away

7.00 Fair: 6.84 Betfair Exchange

+2.34%

Model: 14.6%

São Paulo vs Cruzeiro

medium

Sat 4th, 22:30

FT Result

Home

2.19 Fair: 2.11 1xBet

+3.79%

Model: 47.5%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.34 Bet365

+1.49%

Model: 74.7%

BTTS

Yes

1.84 Fair: 1.82 Kambi Group

+1.1%

Model: 54.9%

Coritiba vs Fluminense

medium

Sun 5th, 00:30

FT Result

Home

3.27 Fair: 2.79 1xBet

+17.2%

Model: 35.9%

HT Result

Home

4.00 Fair: 3.48 Bet365

+14.94%

Model: 28.7%

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.87 Bet365

+4.28%

Model: 53.4%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.59 Fair: 1.58 1xBet

+0.63%

Model: 63.4%

Vasco da Gama vs Botafogo

medium

Sun 5th, 01:00

FT Result

Home

2.27 Fair: 1.81 1xBet

+25.41%

Model: 55.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.36 Fair: 1.24 Bet365

+9.68%

Model: 80.4%

BTTS

No

2.02 Fair: 1.94 Kambi Group

+4.12%

Model: 51.4%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.34 Bet365

+1.49%

Model: 74.8%

Chapecoense vs Vitória

medium

Sun 5th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

2.50 Fair: 1.94 Kambi Group

+28.87%

Model: 51.6%

HT Result

Home

3.15 Fair: 2.61 Kambi Group

+20.69%

Model: 38.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.42 Fair: 1.27 Kambi Group

+11.81%

Model: 78.9%

BTTS

No

1.92 Fair: 1.80 Kambi Group

+6.67%

Model: 55.6%

Atlético Mineiro vs Athletico PR

medium

Sun 5th, 21:30

HT Result

Away

4.75 Fair: 4.31 Bet365

+10.21%

Model: 23.2%

BTTS

No

2.00 Fair: 1.87 Kambi Group

+6.95%

Model: 53.4%

FT Result

Home

1.98 Fair: 1.92 Kambi Group

+3.13%

Model: 52.1%

Flamengo vs Santos

medium

Sun 5th, 21:30

HT Result

Away

7.70 Fair: 5.76 1xBet

+33.68%

Model: 17.4%

FT Result

Away

9.50 Fair: 8.55 Kambi Group

+11.11%

Model: 11.7%

FT Result

Draw

5.25 Fair: 4.92 Kambi Group

+6.71%

Model: 20.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.25 Fair: 3.12 Kambi Group

+4.17%

Model: 32%

BTTS

No

1.75 Fair: 1.74 Bet365

+0.57%

Model: 57.5%

Corinthians vs Internacional

medium

Sun 5th, 23:30

FT Result

Away

3.80 Fair: 3.14 Bet365

+21.02%

Model: 31.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.80 Fair: 1.69 Bet365

+6.51%

Model: 59.3%

HT Result

Away

4.50 Fair: 4.23 Bet365

+6.38%

Model: 23.6%

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.93 Bet365

+1.04%

Model: 51.8%

Bahia vs Palmeiras

medium

Sun 5th, 23:30

FT Result

Home

3.02 Fair: 2.12 1xBet

+42.45%

Model: 47.3%

HT Result

Home

3.54 Fair: 2.65 1xBet

+33.58%

Model: 37.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.58 Fair: 1.38 1xBet

+14.49%

Model: 72.6%

BTTS

No

2.15 Fair: 2.11 Kambi Group

+1.9%

Model: 47.4%

Mirassol vs Bragantino

medium

Mon 6th, 00:00

FT Result

Home

2.08 Fair: 1.95 1xBet

+6.67%

Model: 51.3%

HT Result

Home

2.75 Fair: 2.63 Bet365

+4.56%

Model: 38%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.36 Fair: 1.35 Bet365

+0.74%

Model: 74.1%

Grêmio vs Remo

medium

Mon 6th, 00:30

FT Result

Away

7.20 Fair: 5.46 1xBet

+31.87%

Model: 18.3%

HT Result

Away

6.55 Fair: 5.04 1xBet

+29.96%

Model: 19.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.68 Fair: 2.37 1xBet

+13.08%

Model: 42.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.38 Fair: 4.17 1xBet

+5.04%

Model: 24%

HT Result

Draw

2.40 Fair: 2.35 WilliamHill

+2.13%

Model: 42.5%

BTTS

No

1.91 Fair: 1.88 Kambi Group

+1.6%

Model: 53.1%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.