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Serie A Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Serie A

Find value bets for Serie A fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Coritiba vs Palmeiras

medium

Wed 22nd, 23:30

FT Result

Away

2.16 Fair: 1.86 Betfair Exchange

+16.13%

Model: 53.9%

BTTS

No

1.94 Fair: 1.80 Betfair Exchange

+7.78%

Model: 55.7%

HT Result

Away

2.91 Fair: 2.80 Pinnacle

+3.93%

Model: 35.7%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.38 Fair: 1.36 1xBet

+1.47%

Model: 73.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.25 Fair: 1.24 WilliamHill

+0.81%

Model: 80.4%

Internacional vs Cruzeiro

medium

Thu 23rd, 01:30

HT Result

Home

3.05 Fair: 2.78 Pinnacle

+9.71%

Model: 35.9%

BTTS

No

2.16 Fair: 1.99 Betfair Exchange

+8.54%

Model: 50.3%

FT Result

Home

2.44 Fair: 2.29 Betfair Exchange

+6.55%

Model: 43.7%

São Paulo vs Athletico PR

medium

Thu 23rd, 01:30

FT Result

Home

2.08 Fair: 1.77 Betfair Exchange

+17.51%

Model: 56.5%

HT Result

Home

2.80 Fair: 2.40 Pinnacle

+16.67%

Model: 41.7%

BTTS

No

1.94 Fair: 1.82 Betfair Exchange

+6.59%

Model: 54.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.25 Fair: 1.22 Bet365

+2.46%

Model: 82.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.35 Fair: 1.34 WilliamHill

+0.75%

Model: 74.4%

Chapecoense vs Flamengo

medium

Thu 23rd, 01:30

FT Result

Home

9.00 Fair: 3.84 Betfair Exchange

+134.38%

Model: 26%

HT Result

Home

7.50 Fair: 4.21 Bet365

+78.15%

Model: 23.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.87 Fair: 1.84 1xBet

+55.98%

Model: 54.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.70 Fair: 3.53 Betfair Exchange

+33.14%

Model: 28.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.46 Fair: 2.28 Pinnacle

+7.89%

Model: 43.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.10 Fair: 2.00 Betfair Exchange

+5%

Model: 50%

Botafogo vs Vitória

medium

Thu 23rd, 23:30

BTTS

No

2.16 Fair: 1.96 Betfair Exchange

+10.2%

Model: 51.1%

FT Result

Home

1.78 Fair: 1.67 Betfair Exchange

+6.59%

Model: 59.9%

Corinthians vs Remo

medium

Thu 23rd, 23:30

FT Result

Away

7.80 Fair: 4.12 Betfair Exchange

+89.32%

Model: 24.3%

BTTS

Yes

2.14 Fair: 1.75 Betfair Exchange

+22.29%

Model: 57.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.53 Fair: 2.07 1xBet

+22.22%

Model: 48.3%

HT Result

Away

6.95 Fair: 5.71 Pinnacle

+21.72%

Model: 17.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.23 Pinnacle

+6.28%

Model: 44.8%

FT Result

Draw

4.20 Fair: 4.18 Betfair Exchange

+0.48%

Model: 24%

Athletico PR vs Internacional

medium

Sat 25th, 22:30

BTTS

Yes

2.10 Fair: 2.03 Bet365

+3.45%

Model: 49.3%

FT Result

Away

4.20 Fair: 4.13 Kambi Group

+1.69%

Model: 24.2%

Santos vs Chapecoense

medium

Sat 25th, 22:30

FT Result

Away

8.00 Fair: 6.75 Betano

+18.52%

Model: 14.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.00 Fair: 2.56 Bet365

+17.19%

Model: 39.1%

BTTS

No

1.87 Fair: 1.70 1xBet

+10%

Model: 58.9%

FT Result

Draw

4.52 Fair: 4.11 1xBet

+9.98%

Model: 24.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.30 Bet365

+8.7%

Model: 43.5%

Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol

medium

Sun 26th, 00:30

FT Result

Home

2.08 Fair: 1.98 Kambi Group

+5.05%

Model: 50.4%

Bahia vs Corinthians

medium

Sun 26th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

2.17 Fair: 2.00 1xBet

+8.5%

Model: 49.9%

HT Result

Home

2.75 Fair: 2.66 Bet365

+3.38%

Model: 37.5%

Cruzeiro vs Botafogo

medium

Sun 26th, 20:00

BTTS

Yes

1.91 Fair: 1.87 Bet365

+2.14%

Model: 53.5%

FT Result

Home

1.84 Fair: 1.83 1xBet

+0.55%

Model: 54.5%

Grêmio vs Fluminense

medium

Sun 26th, 22:30

FT Result

Home

2.65 Fair: 2.23 FanDuel

+18.83%

Model: 44.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.47 Fair: 1.39 1xBet

+5.76%

Model: 72%

BTTS

No

2.10 Fair: 2.03 WilliamHill

+3.45%

Model: 49.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.25 Fair: 2.20 WilliamHill

+2.27%

Model: 45.5%

HT Result

Home

3.24 Fair: 3.20 Pinnacle

+1.25%

Model: 31.3%

Bragantino vs Coritiba

medium

Sun 26th, 22:30

FT Result

Away

5.50 Fair: 5.04 Bet365

+9.13%

Model: 19.8%

BTTS

Yes

1.91 Fair: 1.88 Bet365

+1.6%

Model: 53.3%

Flamengo vs São Paulo

medium

Sun 26th, 22:30

HT Result

Away

6.50 Fair: 6.41 Bet365

+1.4%

Model: 15.6%

Palmeiras vs Atlético Mineiro

medium

Sun 26th, 23:30

HT Result

Home

2.20 Fair: 2.17 Bet365

+1.38%

Model: 46.1%

Remo vs Vitória

medium

Sun 26th, 23:30

FT Result

Home

2.24 Fair: 2.18 1xBet

+2.75%

Model: 45.8%

Fluminense vs Bahia

medium

Thu 30th, 01:30

FT Result

Home

1.83 Fair: 1.64 Kambi Group

+11.59%

Model: 61%

BTTS

No

2.10 Fair: 2.08 Kambi Group

+0.96%

Model: 48.1%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.