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Carabao Cup Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Carabao Cup

Find value bets for Carabao Cup fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough

poor

Tue 8th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

4.75 Fair: 1.92 Bet365

+147.4%

Model: 52%

HT Result

Away

4.76 Fair: 2.52 Pinnacle

+88.89%

Model: 39.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.16 Fair: 1.33 1xBet

+62.41%

Model: 75.3%

BTTS

No

2.30 Fair: 2.26 WilliamHill

+1.77%

Model: 44.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.54 Fair: 2.52 Pinnacle

+0.79%

Model: 39.7%

AFC Bournemouth vs Lincoln City

poor

Tue 8th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

8.90 Fair: 3.02 1xBet

+194.7%

Model: 33.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.50 Fair: 1.71 1xBet

+104.68%

Model: 58.4%

HT Result

Away

7.68 Fair: 4.01 Pinnacle

+91.52%

Model: 24.9%

FT Result

Draw

5.65 Fair: 3.95 1xBet

+43.04%

Model: 25.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.98 Fair: 2.37 Pinnacle

+25.74%

Model: 42.3%

Leyton Orient vs Bradford City

poor

Tue 8th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

2.38 Fair: 2.24 Kambi Group

+6.25%

Model: 44.7%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.34 Fair: 1.32 1xBet

+1.52%

Model: 75.9%

HT Result

Away

2.95 Fair: 2.94 Kambi Group

+0.34%

Model: 34%

FT Result

Home

3.22 Fair: 3.21 1xBet

+0.31%

Model: 31.2%

Sunderland vs Hull City

poor

Tue 8th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

5.20 Fair: 3.33 Betfair Exchange

+56.16%

Model: 30.1%

HT Result

Away

5.54 Fair: 4.04 1xBet

+37.13%

Model: 24.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.21 Fair: 1.75 1xBet

+26.29%

Model: 57.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.35 Fair: 2.15 Pinnacle

+9.3%

Model: 46.6%

BTTS

No

2.02 Fair: 1.91 Kambi Group

+5.76%

Model: 52.4%

FT Result

Draw

3.90 Fair: 3.69 Betfair Exchange

+5.69%

Model: 27.1%

Millwall vs Newcastle United

poor

Tue 8th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

5.80 Fair: 2.80 Betfair Exchange

+107.14%

Model: 35.8%

HT Result

Home

5.62 Fair: 3.51 1xBet

+60.11%

Model: 28.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.49 Fair: 1.68 1xBet

+48.21%

Model: 59.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.51 Fair: 2.42 Pinnacle

+3.72%

Model: 41.3%

FT Result

Draw

4.33 Fair: 4.18 1xBet

+3.59%

Model: 23.9%

Chelsea vs Leeds United

poor

Wed 9th, 20:00

HT Result

Away

5.34 Fair: 5.09 Pinnacle

+4.91%

Model: 19.7%

FT Result

Away

5.10 Fair: 4.95 Betfair Exchange

+3.03%

Model: 20.2%

West Ham United vs Fulham

poor

Tue 15th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

3.30 Fair: 2.96 1xBet

+11.49%

Model: 33.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.23 Bet365

+6.28%

Model: 44.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.70 Fair: 1.69 Bet365

+0.59%

Model: 59.2%

Peterborough United vs Barnsley

poor

Tue 15th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

2.75 Fair: 2.51 1xBet

+9.56%

Model: 39.9%

Ipswich Town vs Arsenal

poor

Tue 15th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

7.50 Fair: 3.44 Bet365

+118.02%

Model: 29.1%

HT Result

Home

6.50 Fair: 4.05 Bet365

+60.49%

Model: 24.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.75 Fair: 1.83 Bet365

+50.27%

Model: 54.7%

FT Result

Draw

4.55 Fair: 3.91 1xBet

+16.37%

Model: 25.6%

Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur

poor

Tue 15th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

4.20 Fair: 4.16 Bet365

+0.96%

Model: 24%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.28 Fair: 1.27 Bet365

+0.79%

Model: 79%

Reading vs Brentford

poor

Tue 15th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

9.00 Fair: 3.13 1xBet

+187.54%

Model: 31.9%

HT Result

Home

7.00 Fair: 3.60 Bet365

+94.44%

Model: 27.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.25 Fair: 1.80 Bet365

+80.56%

Model: 55.7%

FT Result

Draw

5.60 Fair: 4.21 1xBet

+33.02%

Model: 23.8%

HT Result

Draw

2.87 Fair: 2.60 Bet365

+10.38%

Model: 38.5%

BTTS

Yes

1.66 Fair: 1.64 Bet365

+1.22%

Model: 61%

Fleetwood Town vs Sheffield United

poor

Wed 16th, 19:45

FT Result

Home

5.10 Fair: 3.68 1xBet

+38.59%

Model: 27.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.30 Fair: 1.85 Bet365

+24.32%

Model: 54%

HT Result

Home

5.00 Fair: 4.27 Bet365

+17.1%

Model: 23.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.15 Fair: 3.72 1xBet

+11.56%

Model: 26.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.40 Fair: 2.37 Bet365

+1.27%

Model: 42.2%

Everton vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

poor

Wed 16th, 19:45

FT Result

Away

5.38 Fair: 2.56 Pinnacle

+110.16%

Model: 39.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.15 Fair: 1.54 Bet365

+39.61%

Model: 65.1%

HT Result

Away

5.00 Fair: 3.62 Bet365

+38.12%

Model: 27.6%

FT Result

Draw

4.10 Fair: 3.84 1xBet

+6.77%

Model: 26%

HT Result

Draw

2.37 Fair: 2.28 Bet365

+3.95%

Model: 43.8%

Coventry City vs Aston Villa

poor

Wed 16th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

3.11 Fair: 2.01 1xBet

+54.73%

Model: 49.8%

HT Result

Home

3.50 Fair: 2.92 Bet365

+19.86%

Model: 34.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.66 Fair: 1.39 Bet365

+19.42%

Model: 72%

Manchester United vs Brighton & Hove Albion

poor

Wed 16th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

3.94 Fair: 3.00 1xBet

+31.33%

Model: 33.4%

HT Result

Away

4.00 Fair: 3.64 Bet365

+9.89%

Model: 27.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.95 Fair: 1.78 Bet365

+9.55%

Model: 56.2%

Manchester City vs Norwich City

poor

Thu 17th, 19:30

FT Result

Away

18.50 Fair: 6.17 1xBet

+199.84%

Model: 16.2%

HT Result

Away

13.00 Fair: 5.76 Bet365

+125.69%

Model: 17.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

6.50 Fair: 3.00 Bet365

+116.67%

Model: 33.3%

FT Result

Draw

9.69 Fair: 5.84 Pinnacle

+65.92%

Model: 17.1%

BTTS

Yes

2.00 Fair: 1.76 Bet365

+13.64%

Model: 56.8%

HT Result

Draw

3.50 Fair: 3.12 Bet365

+12.18%

Model: 32.1%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.