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FA Cup Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for FA Cup

Find value bets for FA Cup fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Manchester City vs Liverpool

poor

Sat 4th, 12:45

FT Result

Away

4.34 Fair: 3.41 1xBet

+27.27%

Model: 29.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.09 Fair: 1.90 1xBet

+10%

Model: 52.6%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.28 Betfair Exchange

+9.65%

Model: 43.8%

HT Result

Away

4.40 Fair: 4.11 1xBet

+7.06%

Model: 24.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.62 Fair: 2.59 Pinnacle

+1.16%

Model: 38.7%

Chelsea vs Port Vale

poor

Sat 4th, 17:15

FT Result

Away

46.00 Fair: 6.20 1xBet

+641.94%

Model: 16.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

13.00 Fair: 2.72 1xBet

+377.94%

Model: 36.7%

FT Result

Draw

22.00 Fair: 4.86 1xBet

+352.67%

Model: 20.6%

HT Result

Away

19.00 Fair: 5.46 Bet365

+247.99%

Model: 18.3%

HT Result

Draw

4.65 Fair: 2.62 1xBet

+77.48%

Model: 38.1%

BTTS

Yes

2.38 Fair: 1.98 Betfair Exchange

+20.2%

Model: 50.5%

Southampton vs Arsenal

poor

Sat 4th, 20:00

FT Result

Home

13.00 Fair: 3.23 Betfair Exchange

+302.48%

Model: 30.9%

HT Result

Home

8.77 Fair: 3.51 Pinnacle

+149.86%

Model: 28.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

3.85 Fair: 1.80 Kambi Group

+113.89%

Model: 55.6%

FT Result

Draw

6.25 Fair: 4.05 Kambi Group

+54.32%

Model: 24.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.90 Fair: 2.51 Pinnacle

+15.54%

Model: 39.8%

BTTS

Yes

2.04 Fair: 1.87 Betfair Exchange

+9.09%

Model: 53.4%

West Ham United vs Leeds United

poor

Sun 5th, 16:30

FT Result

Away

3.00 Fair: 2.11 Betfair Exchange

+42.18%

Model: 47.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.59 Fair: 1.38 1xBet

+15.22%

Model: 72.4%

HT Result

Away

3.61 Fair: 3.18 Pinnacle

+13.52%

Model: 31.4%

BTTS

No

2.28 Fair: 2.12 Betfair Exchange

+7.55%

Model: 47.2%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.