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Premier League Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Premier League

Find value bets for Premier League fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest

high

Sun 17th, 12:30

FT Result

Away

5.70 Fair: 4.27 Betfair Exchange

+33.49%

Model: 23.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.33 Fair: 2.17 Kambi Group

+7.37%

Model: 46.2%

FT Result

Draw

4.60 Fair: 4.39 Betfair Exchange

+4.78%

Model: 22.8%

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs Fulham

high

Sun 17th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

4.20 Fair: 3.55 Betfair Exchange

+18.31%

Model: 28.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.41 Fair: 2.17 Pinnacle

+11.06%

Model: 46.1%

HT Result

Home

4.39 Fair: 4.16 Pinnacle

+5.53%

Model: 24.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.97 Fair: 1.87 1xBet

+5.35%

Model: 53.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.04 Fair: 3.96 1xBet

+2.02%

Model: 25.2%

BTTS

No

2.28 Fair: 2.25 Betfair Exchange

+1.33%

Model: 44.4%

Leeds United vs Brighton & Hove Albion

high

Sun 17th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 2.34 Betfair Exchange

+53.85%

Model: 42.8%

HT Result

Home

3.98 Fair: 2.84 Pinnacle

+40.14%

Model: 35.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.75 Fair: 1.47 1xBet

+19.05%

Model: 68%

BTTS

No

2.38 Fair: 2.36 Betfair Exchange

+0.85%

Model: 42.4%

Brentford vs Crystal Palace

high

Sun 17th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

5.00 Fair: 3.66 Betfair Exchange

+36.61%

Model: 27.3%

HT Result

Away

5.00 Fair: 4.00 Bet365

+25%

Model: 25%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.20 Fair: 1.89 1xBet

+16.4%

Model: 52.9%

FT Result

Draw

4.30 Fair: 3.92 Betfair Exchange

+9.69%

Model: 25.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.51 Fair: 2.42 Pinnacle

+3.72%

Model: 41.2%

BTTS

No

2.30 Fair: 2.24 Betfair Exchange

+2.68%

Model: 44.6%

Everton vs Sunderland

high

Sun 17th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

4.40 Fair: 2.91 Betfair Exchange

+51.2%

Model: 34.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.98 Fair: 1.61 Kambi Group

+22.98%

Model: 62.2%

HT Result

Away

4.73 Fair: 3.89 Pinnacle

+21.59%

Model: 25.7%

BTTS

No

2.24 Fair: 2.02 Betfair Exchange

+10.89%

Model: 49.5%

HT Result

Draw

2.41 Fair: 2.19 Pinnacle

+10.05%

Model: 45.7%

FT Result

Draw

3.85 Fair: 3.59 Betfair Exchange

+7.24%

Model: 27.8%

Newcastle United vs West Ham United

high

Sun 17th, 17:30

FT Result

Home

2.31 Fair: 1.88 1xBet

+22.87%

Model: 53.3%

HT Result

Home

2.81 Fair: 2.37 Pinnacle

+18.57%

Model: 42.2%

BTTS

No

2.78 Fair: 2.52 Betfair Exchange

+10.32%

Model: 39.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.42 Fair: 1.32 1xBet

+7.58%

Model: 75.9%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.31 Fair: 1.29 1xBet

+1.55%

Model: 77.5%

Arsenal vs Burnley

high

Mon 18th, 20:00

FT Result

Away

38.00 Fair: 12.35 1xBet

+207.69%

Model: 8.1%

FT Result

Draw

14.00 Fair: 5.97 Betfair Exchange

+134.51%

Model: 16.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

9.20 Fair: 4.02 1xBet

+128.86%

Model: 24.9%

HT Result

Away

17.36 Fair: 9.94 Pinnacle

+74.65%

Model: 10.1%

HT Result

Draw

3.87 Fair: 3.27 Pinnacle

+18.35%

Model: 30.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.70 Fair: 2.49 Betfair Exchange

+8.43%

Model: 40.2%

AFC Bournemouth vs Manchester City

high

Tue 19th, 19:30

BTTS

No

2.82 Fair: 2.13 Betfair Exchange

+32.39%

Model: 47%

FT Result

Home

4.50 Fair: 4.00 Betfair Exchange

+12.5%

Model: 25%

FT Result

Draw

4.40 Fair: 3.99 Betfair Exchange

+10.28%

Model: 25%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.11 Fair: 2.00 1xBet

+5.5%

Model: 50%

HT Result

Draw

2.64 Fair: 2.55 Pinnacle

+3.53%

Model: 39.2%

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur

high

Tue 19th, 20:15

FT Result

Away

3.70 Fair: 3.54 1xBet

+4.52%

Model: 28.2%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.44 WilliamHill

+2.46%

Model: 41%

Brighton & Hove Albion vs Manchester United

high

Sun 24th, 16:00

FT Result

Home

2.42 Fair: 2.34 1xBet

+3.42%

Model: 42.8%

FT Result

Draw

3.80 Fair: 3.72 1xBet

+2.15%

Model: 26.9%

Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton

high

Sun 24th, 16:00

FT Result

Away

3.31 Fair: 2.84 1xBet

+16.55%

Model: 35.3%

Manchester City vs Aston Villa

high

Sun 24th, 16:00

FT Result

Away

8.00 Fair: 6.84 Bet365

+16.96%

Model: 14.6%

FT Result

Draw

5.57 Fair: 5.01 1xBet

+11.18%

Model: 20%

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

high

Sun 24th, 16:00

FT Result

Home

7.31 Fair: 5.14 1xBet

+42.22%

Model: 19.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.32 Fair: 3.71 1xBet

+16.44%

Model: 26.9%

Liverpool vs Brentford

high

Sun 24th, 16:00

FT Result

Home

1.61 Fair: 1.49 Bet365

+8.05%

Model: 67.1%

West Ham United vs Leeds United

high

Sun 24th, 16:00

FT Result

Draw

3.61 Fair: 3.58 1xBet

+0.84%

Model: 27.9%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.