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Premier League Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Premier League

Find value bets for Premier League fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest

high

Fri 23rd, 20:00

HT Result

Home

3.79 Fair: 2.99 Pinnacle

+26.76%

Model: 33.5%

FT Result

Home

3.35 Fair: 2.94 Betfair Exchange

+13.95%

Model: 34%

BTTS

No

2.40 Fair: 2.16 Betfair Exchange

+11.11%

Model: 46.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.69 Fair: 1.64 1xBet

+3.05%

Model: 61.2%

Aston Villa vs Manchester City

high

Sat 24th, 12:30

HT Result

Home

4.85 Fair: 4.27 Pinnacle

+13.58%

Model: 23.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.64 Fair: 2.43 Pinnacle

+8.64%

Model: 41.1%

BTTS

No

2.54 Fair: 2.43 Betfair Exchange

+4.53%

Model: 41.1%

FT Result

Away

1.76 Fair: 1.75 1xBet

+0.57%

Model: 57.1%

Coventry City vs Fulham

high

Sat 24th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

3.20 Fair: 2.49 Betfair Exchange

+28.51%

Model: 40.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.65 Fair: 1.52 1xBet

+8.55%

Model: 65.7%

HT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 3.32 Pinnacle

+8.43%

Model: 30.2%

BTTS

No

2.44 Fair: 2.36 FanDuel

+3.39%

Model: 42.3%

Arsenal vs Everton

high

Sat 24th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

9.60 Fair: 7.05 Betfair Exchange

+36.17%

Model: 14.2%

HT Result

Away

8.05 Fair: 6.24 Pinnacle

+29.01%

Model: 16%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.00 Fair: 2.82 Bet365

+6.38%

Model: 35.5%

FT Result

Draw

4.80 Fair: 4.70 Betfair Exchange

+2.13%

Model: 21.3%

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur

high

Sat 24th, 17:30

FT Result

Draw

4.50 Fair: 4.30 Betfair Exchange

+4.65%

Model: 23.3%

BTTS

No

2.54 Fair: 2.43 Betfair Exchange

+4.53%

Model: 41.2%

FT Result

Away

4.75 Fair: 4.69 Bet365

+1.28%

Model: 21.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.64 Fair: 2.62 Pinnacle

+0.76%

Model: 38.1%

Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion

high

Sun 25th, 14:00

FT Result

Away

3.25 Fair: 3.05 Betfair Exchange

+6.56%

Model: 32.8%

BTTS

No

2.68 Fair: 2.63 Betfair Exchange

+1.9%

Model: 38%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.76 Fair: 1.74 1xBet

+1.15%

Model: 57.4%

HT Result

Home

2.62 Fair: 2.60 Bet365

+0.77%

Model: 38.5%

Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United

high

Sun 25th, 14:00

FT Result

Home

3.02 Fair: 2.42 1xBet

+24.79%

Model: 41.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.46 Fair: 2.31 Pinnacle

+6.49%

Model: 43.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.63 Fair: 1.54 1xBet

+5.84%

Model: 65.1%

BTTS

No

2.66 Fair: 2.58 Betfair Exchange

+3.1%

Model: 38.8%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.33 Fair: 1.31 1xBet

+1.53%

Model: 76.1%

Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth

high

Sun 25th, 14:00

BTTS

No

2.56 Fair: 2.31 Betfair Exchange

+10.82%

Model: 43.3%

FT Result

Away

4.20 Fair: 4.07 Bet365

+3.19%

Model: 24.6%

FT Result

Draw

4.06 Fair: 4.03 1xBet

+0.74%

Model: 24.8%

Hull City vs Brentford

high

Sun 25th, 14:00

FT Result

Home

5.00 Fair: 3.53 Betfair Exchange

+41.64%

Model: 28.3%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.17 Fair: 1.79 1xBet

+21.23%

Model: 55.9%

HT Result

Home

5.12 Fair: 4.33 Pinnacle

+18.24%

Model: 23.1%

FT Result

Draw

4.11 Fair: 3.63 Pinnacle

+13.22%

Model: 27.6%

BTTS

No

2.26 Fair: 2.04 FanDuel

+10.78%

Model: 49%

HT Result

Draw

2.52 Fair: 2.33 Pinnacle

+8.15%

Model: 42.8%

Sunderland vs Leeds United

high

Sun 25th, 16:30

FT Result

Home

3.20 Fair: 2.30 Betfair Exchange

+39.13%

Model: 43.4%

HT Result

Home

3.89 Fair: 3.26 Pinnacle

+19.33%

Model: 30.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.57 Fair: 1.40 1xBet

+12.14%

Model: 71.3%

HT Result

Draw

2.19 Fair: 2.10 Pinnacle

+4.29%

Model: 47.6%

BTTS

No

2.08 Fair: 2.05 Betfair Exchange

+1.46%

Model: 48.7%

Chelsea vs Manchester United

high

Sat 31st, 12:30

BTTS

No

2.60 Fair: 2.27 Betfair Exchange

+14.54%

Model: 44.1%

FT Result

Draw

4.10 Fair: 3.79 Betfair Exchange

+8.18%

Model: 26.4%

FT Result

Away

3.86 Fair: 3.71 1xBet

+4.04%

Model: 27%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.90 Fair: 1.87 Bet365

+1.6%

Model: 53.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.48 Bet365

+0.81%

Model: 40.4%

AFC Bournemouth vs Leeds United

high

Sat 31st, 15:00

FT Result

Home

2.24 Fair: 1.84 1xBet

+21.74%

Model: 54.2%

BTTS

No

2.26 Fair: 1.93 Betfair Exchange

+17.1%

Model: 51.8%

HT Result

Home

2.75 Fair: 2.38 Bet365

+15.55%

Model: 42%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.33 Fair: 1.24 Bet365

+7.26%

Model: 80.3%

Manchester City vs Brighton & Hove Albion

high

Sat 31st, 15:00

HT Result

Home

2.20 Fair: 2.00 Bet365

+10%

Model: 50.1%

FT Result

Home

1.73 Fair: 1.61 Betfair Exchange

+7.45%

Model: 62%

Hull City vs Ipswich Town

high

Sat 31st, 15:00

BTTS

No

2.28 Fair: 2.09 Betfair Exchange

+9.09%

Model: 47.9%

HT Result

Draw

2.25 Fair: 2.15 Bet365

+4.65%

Model: 46.4%

Brentford vs Nottingham Forest

high

Sat 31st, 15:00

FT Result

Away

3.75 Fair: 2.64 Betfair Exchange

+42.05%

Model: 38%

HT Result

Away

4.00 Fair: 3.33 Bet365

+20.12%

Model: 30%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.80 Fair: 1.52 Bet365

+18.42%

Model: 65.8%

FT Result

Draw

3.88 Fair: 3.59 1xBet

+8.08%

Model: 27.8%

BTTS

No

2.28 Fair: 2.19 Betfair Exchange

+4.11%

Model: 45.7%

Coventry City vs Sunderland

high

Sat 31st, 15:00

FT Result

Home

2.95 Fair: 2.44 1xBet

+20.9%

Model: 41%

BTTS

Yes

1.76 Fair: 1.66 Betfair Exchange

+6.02%

Model: 60.4%

HT Result

Home

3.25 Fair: 3.16 Bet365

+2.85%

Model: 31.7%

Tottenham Hotspur vs Crystal Palace

high

Sat 31st, 17:30

FT Result

Away

5.40 Fair: 3.74 Betfair Exchange

+44.39%

Model: 26.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.25 Fair: 1.97 Bet365

+14.21%

Model: 50.8%

HT Result

Away

5.00 Fair: 4.54 Bet365

+10.13%

Model: 22%

FT Result

Draw

4.40 Fair: 4.15 Betfair Exchange

+6.02%

Model: 24.1%

BTTS

Yes

1.74 Fair: 1.70 Betfair Exchange

+2.35%

Model: 58.8%

Aston Villa vs Fulham

high

Sat 31st, 20:00

FT Result

Away

3.55 Fair: 3.18 Betfair Exchange

+11.64%

Model: 31.5%

Liverpool vs Arsenal

high

Sun 1st, 16:30

HT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 3.35 Bet365

+7.46%

Model: 29.8%

FT Result

Away

2.28 Fair: 2.17 Betfair Exchange

+5.07%

Model: 46.2%

BTTS

No

2.36 Fair: 2.33 Betfair Exchange

+1.29%

Model: 43%

Newcastle United vs Everton

high

Mon 2nd, 20:00

FT Result

Away

3.23 Fair: 2.63 1xBet

+22.81%

Model: 38.1%

BTTS

No

2.40 Fair: 2.12 Betfair Exchange

+13.21%

Model: 47.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.66 Fair: 1.53 Bet365

+8.5%

Model: 65.3%

FT Result

Draw

3.80 Fair: 3.67 Betfair Exchange

+3.54%

Model: 27.3%

HT Result

Away

3.50 Fair: 3.42 Bet365

+2.34%

Model: 29.2%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.