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Liga Portugal Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Liga Portugal

Find value bets for Liga Portugal fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Gil Vicente vs AVS

high

Fri 3rd, 15:30

FT Result

Away

11.00 Fair: 5.99 Betfair Exchange

+83.64%

Model: 16.7%

HT Result

Away

8.81 Fair: 5.61 Pinnacle

+57.04%

Model: 17.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.24 Fair: 2.47 1xBet

+31.17%

Model: 40.4%

FT Result

Draw

5.10 Fair: 4.21 1xBet

+21.14%

Model: 23.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.54 Fair: 2.46 Pinnacle

+3.25%

Model: 40.6%

Vitória Guimarães vs Tondela

high

Fri 3rd, 18:00

FT Result

Away

5.20 Fair: 3.72 Betfair Exchange

+39.78%

Model: 26.9%

HT Result

Away

5.53 Fair: 4.32 Pinnacle

+28.01%

Model: 23.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.11 Fair: 1.87 1xBet

+12.83%

Model: 53.4%

BTTS

Yes

2.00 Fair: 1.91 Bet365

+4.71%

Model: 52.4%

HT Result

Draw

2.28 Fair: 2.23 Kambi Group

+2.24%

Model: 44.8%

Sporting CP vs Santa Clara

high

Fri 3rd, 20:30

HT Result

Away

10.00 Fair: 6.00 Bet365

+66.67%

Model: 16.7%

FT Result

Away

14.00 Fair: 9.67 Betfair Exchange

+44.78%

Model: 10.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.96 Fair: 3.24 1xBet

+22.22%

Model: 30.8%

FT Result

Draw

5.90 Fair: 4.88 1xBet

+20.9%

Model: 20.5%

Nacional vs Estrela Amadora

high

Sat 4th, 15:30

FT Result

Away

3.80 Fair: 3.28 Bet365

+15.85%

Model: 30.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.80 Fair: 1.79 Bet365

+0.56%

Model: 55.8%

Moreirense vs Sporting Braga

high

Sat 4th, 18:00

FT Result

Home

7.00 Fair: 5.17 Betfair Exchange

+35.4%

Model: 19.4%

HT Result

Home

6.53 Fair: 5.39 Pinnacle

+21.15%

Model: 18.5%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.45 Fair: 2.39 1xBet

+2.51%

Model: 41.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.00 Fair: 1.98 Bet365

+1.01%

Model: 50.6%

Rio Ave vs Alverca

high

Sat 4th, 18:00

FT Result

Home

2.60 Fair: 2.29 Kambi Group

+13.54%

Model: 43.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.47 Fair: 1.40 1xBet

+5%

Model: 71.3%

BTTS

No

2.00 Fair: 1.93 Kambi Group

+3.63%

Model: 51.9%

Porto vs Famalicão

high

Sat 4th, 20:30

HT Result

Away

7.96 Fair: 5.74 Pinnacle

+38.68%

Model: 17.4%

FT Result

Away

10.00 Fair: 7.75 Betfair Exchange

+29.03%

Model: 12.9%

Arouca vs Estoril

high

Mon 6th, 18:45

FT Result

Away

2.75 Fair: 2.52 1xBet

+9.13%

Model: 39.7%

HT Result

Away

3.27 Fair: 3.22 Pinnacle

+1.55%

Model: 31.1%

Casa Pia vs Benfica

high

Mon 6th, 20:45

FT Result

Home

16.00 Fair: 7.07 1xBet

+126.31%

Model: 14.1%

HT Result

Home

10.50 Fair: 5.07 1xBet

+107.1%

Model: 19.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

4.32 Fair: 2.76 1xBet

+56.52%

Model: 36.2%

FT Result

Draw

6.60 Fair: 4.53 Betfair Exchange

+45.7%

Model: 22.1%

HT Result

Draw

3.00 Fair: 2.59 Pinnacle

+15.83%

Model: 38.6%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.