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FNL Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for FNL

Find value bets for FNL fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

Neftekhimik vs Fakel

medium

Wed 1st, 17:30

HT Result

Home

4.95 Fair: 3.53 1xBet

+40.23%

Model: 28.4%

FT Result

Home

4.06 Fair: 3.23 1xBet

+25.7%

Model: 30.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.41 Fair: 2.16 Pinnacle

+11.57%

Model: 46.4%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.69 Fair: 1.64 1xBet

+3.05%

Model: 61.1%

Double Chance

Home Away

1.44 Fair: 1.43 Pinnacle

+0.7%

Model: 69.8%

Chelyabinsk vs Chernomorets

medium

Fri 3rd, 15:30

FT Result

Away

4.17 Fair: 2.81 1xBet

+48.4%

Model: 35.6%

HT Result

Away

4.90 Fair: 3.82 1xBet

+28.27%

Model: 26.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.78 Fair: 1.59 1xBet

+11.95%

Model: 62.9%

BTTS

Yes

2.06 Fair: 1.93 1xBet

+6.74%

Model: 51.9%

Spartak Kostroma vs Yenisey

medium

Sat 4th, 16:00

FT Result

Home

2.19 Fair: 2.05 1xBet

+6.83%

Model: 48.8%

HT Result

Home

2.93 Fair: 2.89 Pinnacle

+1.38%

Model: 34.6%

Sokol Saratov vs Rodina Moskva

medium

Sun 5th, 11:00

FT Result

Home

7.70 Fair: 3.86 1xBet

+99.48%

Model: 25.9%

HT Result

Home

7.92 Fair: 4.75 Pinnacle

+66.74%

Model: 21.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.61 Fair: 1.85 1xBet

+41.08%

Model: 54.1%

BTTS

Yes

2.43 Fair: 2.15 1xBet

+13.02%

Model: 46.6%

FT Result

Draw

4.02 Fair: 3.56 1xBet

+12.92%

Model: 28.1%

medium

Sun 5th, 12:00

FT Result

Away

9.78 Fair: 4.55 Pinnacle

+114.95%

Model: 22%

HT Result

Away

8.69 Fair: 4.80 Pinnacle

+81.04%

Model: 20.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.46 Fair: 2.14 1xBet

+61.68%

Model: 46.7%

FT Result

Draw

5.60 Fair: 4.05 1xBet

+38.27%

Model: 24.7%

HT Result

Draw

2.65 Fair: 2.31 Pinnacle

+14.72%

Model: 43.2%

BTTS

Yes

2.05 Fair: 1.89 1xBet

+8.47%

Model: 53%

Arsenal Tula vs Fakel

medium

Sun 5th, 14:00

HT Result

Home

4.40 Fair: 3.51 1xBet

+25.36%

Model: 28.5%

FT Result

Home

3.56 Fair: 3.11 1xBet

+14.47%

Model: 32.1%

BTTS

Yes

2.22 Fair: 2.07 1xBet

+7.25%

Model: 48.3%

Rotor Volgograd vs Neftekhimik

medium

Sun 5th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

4.04 Fair: 3.26 1xBet

+23.93%

Model: 30.7%

HT Result

Away

4.90 Fair: 4.01 1xBet

+22.19%

Model: 25%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.74 Fair: 1.62 1xBet

+7.41%

Model: 61.6%

BTTS

Yes

2.30 Fair: 2.28 1xBet

+0.88%

Model: 43.9%

Ufa vs Torpedo Moskva

medium

Mon 6th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

2.94 Fair: 2.75 1xBet

+6.91%

Model: 36.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.56 Fair: 1.50 1xBet

+4%

Model: 66.5%

FT Result

Draw

3.44 Fair: 3.32 Pinnacle

+3.61%

Model: 30.1%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.