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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated 22 de Julio vs El Nacional 100,000 times. El Nacional won 49,227 of them (49.2%), the draw came up 23.9% of the time and 22 de Julio won 26.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.7%, while the likeliest El Nacional win is 1-2 (9.3%). Both teams score in 62.6% of simulations.
Full time 2-5. Before kick-off the simulations had El Nacional winning 49.2%. This exact score was outside the 15 likeliest.
| 22 de Julio win | 26.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.9% |
| El Nacional win | 49.2% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.34 – 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 62.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 40% |
| 22 de Julio score first | 45% |
| El Nacional score first | 50.1% |
| 22 de Julio clean sheet | 15.8% |
| El Nacional clean sheet | 26.6% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420676009 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
El Nacional are favourites. They win 49.2% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.9% for the draw and 26.9% for 22 de Julio. Including the draw, El Nacional avoid defeat 73.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.7% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.3%) and 0-2 (7.1%). The likeliest El Nacional win is 1-2 (9.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62.6% of simulations. 22 de Julio keep a clean sheet 15.8% of the time and El Nacional 26.6%.
The simulations average 3.21 goals: 1.34 for 22 de Julio and 1.87 for El Nacional. Over 1.5 goals lands 83.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 62% and over 3.5 goals 40%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.