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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Aarau vs Wil 100,000 times. Aarau won 56,456 of them (56.5%), the draw came up 21.8% of the time and Wil won 21.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.6%, while the likeliest Aarau win is 2-1 (9.4%). Both teams score in 63.6% of simulations.
| Aarau win | 56.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.8% |
| Wil win | 21.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.6%) |
| Expected goals | 2.14 – 1.27 |
| Both teams to score | 63.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 44.4% |
| Aarau score first | 65% |
| Wil score first | 31.1% |
| Aarau clean sheet | 28.4% |
| Wil clean sheet | 12.2% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420668783 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Aarau are favourites. They win 56.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.8% for the draw and 21.7% for Wil. Including the draw, Aarau avoid defeat 78.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.6% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.4%) and 2-0 (7.5%). The likeliest Aarau win is 2-1 (9.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 63.6% of simulations. Aarau keep a clean sheet 28.4% of the time and Wil 12.2%.
The simulations average 3.42 goals: 2.14 for Aarau and 1.27 for Wil. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 66% and over 3.5 goals 44.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.