Enhanced Guides Now Live!
29 Oct 2026
I have continued to improve the general usability of the site this week, further improving the core navigation to show the guides button ac…
Context-Aware Alerts Results Added!
29 Oct 2026
When you're browsing through your triggered alerts on the new Alerts hub, you can now instantly see how the game played within the context …
New Alpha Version Launched!
28 Oct 2026
We've just rolled out the next version of Alpha. Every selection now has to pass a full backtest on real bookmaker prices, and picks are al…
Explore Our Upgraded Alerts Page!
28 Oct 2026
One of the oldest pages on OddAlerts finally got the upgrade it deserved: The biggest change is control. For the first time you can adjust …
New Navigation Enhancements Live!
28 Oct 2026
I've just finished refactoring the site navigation on the website, and it brings the following improvements: - A reduced fixed bottom navig…
For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Alianza vs Marathón 100,000 times. Marathón won 41,340 of them (41.3%), the draw came up 26.4% of the time and Alianza won 32.3%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.4%, while the likeliest Marathón win is 0-1 (10.1%). Both teams score in 52.7% of simulations.
Full time 0-0. Before kick-off the simulations had the draw at 26.4% and gave this exact score 7.7%.
| Alianza win | 32.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.4% |
| Marathón win | 41.3% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.21 – 1.41 |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.9% |
| Alianza score first | 42.3% |
| Marathón score first | 49.8% |
| Alianza clean sheet | 24.9% |
| Marathón clean sheet | 30.1% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420722682 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Marathón are favourites. They win 41.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.4% for the draw and 32.3% for Alianza. Including the draw, Marathón avoid defeat 67.7% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.4% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (10.1%) and 1-0 (8.7%). The likeliest Marathón win is 0-1 (10.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 52.7% of simulations. Alianza keep a clean sheet 24.9% of the time and Marathón 30.1%.
The simulations average 2.62 goals: 1.21 for Alianza and 1.41 for Marathón. Over 1.5 goals lands 73.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 48.5% and over 3.5 goals 26.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.