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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated América vs Toluca 100,000 times. América won 41,052 of them (41.1%), the draw came up 26.1% of the time and Toluca won 32.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.9%, while the likeliest América win is 2-1 (8.7%). Both teams score in 62% of simulations.
| América win | 41.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 26.1% |
| Toluca win | 32.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.9%) |
| Expected goals | 1.63 – 1.44 |
| Both teams to score | 62% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% |
| América score first | 48.2% |
| Toluca score first | 45.8% |
| América clean sheet | 24.1% |
| Toluca clean sheet | 20% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420578816 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
América are favourites. They win 41.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 26.1% for the draw and 32.9% for Toluca. Including the draw, América avoid defeat 67.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.9% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.7%) and 1-2 (7.7%). The likeliest América win is 2-1 (8.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 62% of simulations. América keep a clean sheet 24.1% of the time and Toluca 20%.
The simulations average 3.07 goals: 1.63 for América and 1.44 for Toluca. Over 1.5 goals lands 82% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59% and over 3.5 goals 36.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.