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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Azerbaijan vs Tajikistan 100,000 times. Azerbaijan won 55,699 of them (55.7%), the draw came up 23.7% of the time and Tajikistan won 20.6%. The most likely score is 1-0 (13.7%), and both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Full time 1-0. Before kick-off the simulations had Azerbaijan winning 55.7% and gave this exact score 13.7%.
| Azerbaijan win | 55.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.7% |
| Tajikistan win | 20.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-0 (13.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.64 – 0.87 |
| Both teams to score | 46% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.7% |
| Azerbaijan score first | 58.8% |
| Tajikistan score first | 33.6% |
| Azerbaijan clean sheet | 42% |
| Tajikistan clean sheet | 19.9% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420581198 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Azerbaijan are favourites. They win 55.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.7% for the draw and 20.6% for Tajikistan. Including the draw, Azerbaijan avoid defeat 79.4% of the time.
1-0, which came up in 13.7% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (11%) and 2-0 (10.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 46% of simulations. Azerbaijan keep a clean sheet 42% of the time and Tajikistan 19.9%.
The simulations average 2.51 goals: 1.64 for Azerbaijan and 0.87 for Tajikistan. Over 1.5 goals lands 70.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 45.8% and over 3.5 goals 24.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.