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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Crewe Alexandra vs Aston Villa U21 100,000 times. Crewe Alexandra won 63,838 of them (63.8%), the draw came up 19% of the time and Aston Villa U21 won 17.2%. The most likely score is 2-1 (9.2%), and both teams score in 63.5% of simulations.
Full time 4-1. Before kick-off the simulations had Crewe Alexandra winning 63.8% and gave this exact score 4.6%.
| Crewe Alexandra win | 63.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19% |
| Aston Villa U21 win | 17.2% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (9.2%) |
| Expected goals | 2.43 – 1.20 |
| Both teams to score | 63.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.8% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.9% |
| Crewe Alexandra score first | 66.9% |
| Aston Villa U21 score first | 29.9% |
| Crewe Alexandra clean sheet | 30.5% |
| Aston Villa U21 clean sheet | 9.2% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420657177 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Crewe Alexandra are favourites. They win 63.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 19% for the draw and 17.2% for Aston Villa U21. Including the draw, Crewe Alexandra avoid defeat 82.9% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 9.2% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (8.1%) and 2-0 (7.8%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 63.5% of simulations. Crewe Alexandra keep a clean sheet 30.5% of the time and Aston Villa U21 9.2%.
The simulations average 3.63 goals: 2.43 for Crewe Alexandra and 1.20 for Aston Villa U21. Over 1.5 goals lands 87.8% of the time, over 2.5 goals 69.8% and over 3.5 goals 48.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.