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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Dragones Toluca vs Ajolotes Lerma FC 100,000 times. Dragones Toluca won 63,511 of them (63.5%), the draw came up 19.4% of the time and Ajolotes Lerma FC won 17.1%. The most likely score is 2-1 (9.2%), and both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Full time 3-0. Before kick-off the simulations had Dragones Toluca winning 63.5% and gave this exact score 6.3%.
| Dragones Toluca win | 63.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.4% |
| Ajolotes Lerma FC win | 17.1% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (9.2%) |
| Expected goals | 2.44 – 1.21 |
| Both teams to score | 64% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.1% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.3% |
| Dragones Toluca score first | 66.2% |
| Ajolotes Lerma FC score first | 30.6% |
| Dragones Toluca clean sheet | 30.2% |
| Ajolotes Lerma FC clean sheet | 9.1% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420687449 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Dragones Toluca are favourites. They win 63.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 19.4% for the draw and 17.1% for Ajolotes Lerma FC. Including the draw, Dragones Toluca avoid defeat 83% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 9.2% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (8.3%) and 2-0 (7.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 64% of simulations. Dragones Toluca keep a clean sheet 30.2% of the time and Ajolotes Lerma FC 9.1%.
The simulations average 3.65 goals: 2.44 for Dragones Toluca and 1.21 for Ajolotes Lerma FC. Over 1.5 goals lands 88.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 70.1% and over 3.5 goals 49.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.