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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated El Nacional vs Gualaceo 100,000 times. Gualaceo won 46,031 of them (46%), the draw came up 25.5% of the time and El Nacional won 28.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12%, while the likeliest Gualaceo win is 0-1 (10%). Both teams score in 54.2% of simulations.
Full time 1-1. Before kick-off the simulations had the draw at 25.5% and gave this exact score 12%.
| El Nacional win | 28.5% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Gualaceo win | 46% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12%) |
| Expected goals | 1.17 – 1.56 |
| Both teams to score | 54.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.2% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.3% |
| El Nacional score first | 38.5% |
| Gualaceo score first | 54.8% |
| El Nacional clean sheet | 21.4% |
| Gualaceo clean sheet | 31.3% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420676015 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Gualaceo are favourites. They win 46% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.5% for the draw and 28.5% for El Nacional. Including the draw, Gualaceo avoid defeat 71.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12% of simulations. Next are 0-1 (10%) and 1-2 (9.1%). The likeliest Gualaceo win is 0-1 (10%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 54.2% of simulations. El Nacional keep a clean sheet 21.4% of the time and Gualaceo 31.3%.
The simulations average 2.73 goals: 1.17 for El Nacional and 1.56 for Gualaceo. Over 1.5 goals lands 75.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 51.2% and over 3.5 goals 29.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.