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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Famalicão vs Arouca 100,000 times. Famalicão won 37,618 of them (37.6%), the draw came up 30.4% of the time and Arouca won 32%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.1%, while the likeliest Famalicão win is 1-0 (10.9%). Both teams score in 47.6% of simulations.
| Famalicão win | 37.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 30.4% |
| Arouca win | 32% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.21 – 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | 47.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% |
| Famalicão score first | 49.6% |
| Arouca score first | 39.2% |
| Famalicão clean sheet | 33.6% |
| Arouca clean sheet | 30% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420611743 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Famalicão are favourites. They win 37.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 30.4% for the draw and 32% for Arouca. Including the draw, Famalicão avoid defeat 68% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14.1% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (11.2%) and 1-0 (10.9%). The likeliest Famalicão win is 1-0 (10.9%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 47.6% of simulations. Famalicão keep a clean sheet 33.6% of the time and Arouca 30%.
The simulations average 2.31 goals: 1.21 for Famalicão and 1.10 for Arouca. Over 1.5 goals lands 68.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 40.7% and over 3.5 goals 20.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.