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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Grêmio vs Atlético Mineiro 100,000 times. Grêmio won 43,739 of them (43.7%), the draw came up 30.6% of the time and Atlético Mineiro won 25.6%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.1%, while the likeliest Grêmio win is 1-0 (12.1%). Both teams score in 46.3% of simulations.
Full time 2-0. Before kick-off the simulations had Grêmio winning 43.7% and gave this exact score 8.9%.
| Grêmio win | 43.7% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 30.6% |
| Atlético Mineiro win | 25.6% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (14.1%) |
| Expected goals | 1.33 – 0.96 |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.9% |
| Grêmio score first | 56.1% |
| Atlético Mineiro score first | 32.5% |
| Grêmio clean sheet | 38.7% |
| Atlético Mineiro clean sheet | 26.9% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420713411 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Grêmio are favourites. They win 43.7% of our 100,000 simulations, against 30.6% for the draw and 25.6% for Atlético Mineiro. Including the draw, Grêmio avoid defeat 74.4% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 14.1% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (12.1%) and 0-0 (11.8%). The likeliest Grêmio win is 1-0 (12.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 46.3% of simulations. Grêmio keep a clean sheet 38.7% of the time and Atlético Mineiro 26.9%.
The simulations average 2.29 goals: 1.33 for Grêmio and 0.96 for Atlético Mineiro. Over 1.5 goals lands 67.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 40% and over 3.5 goals 19.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.