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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Italy W vs Belarus W 100,000 times. Italy W won 96,561 of them (96.6%), the draw came up 2.9% of the time and Belarus W won 0.6%. The most likely score is 4-0 (15.3%), and both teams score in 18.8% of simulations.
Full time 1-1. Before kick-off the simulations had the draw at 2.9%. This exact score was outside the 15 likeliest.
| Italy W win | 96.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 2.9% |
| Belarus W win | 0.6% |
| Most likely score | 4-0 (15.3%) |
| Expected goals | 4.15 – 0.21 |
| Both teams to score | 18.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 92.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 62.5% |
| Italy W score first | 92.7% |
| Belarus W score first | 5.9% |
| Italy W clean sheet | 80.8% |
| Belarus W clean sheet | 1.8% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420713324 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Italy W are favourites. They win 96.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 2.9% for the draw and 0.6% for Belarus W. Including the draw, Italy W avoid defeat 99.5% of the time.
4-0, which came up in 15.3% of simulations. Next are 3-0 (15%) and 5-0 (12.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 18.8% of simulations. Italy W keep a clean sheet 80.8% of the time and Belarus W 1.8%.
The simulations average 4.37 goals: 4.15 for Italy W and 0.21 for Belarus W. Over 1.5 goals lands 92.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 80% and over 3.5 goals 62.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Betfair Exchange), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.