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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Korea Republic vs Ecuador 100,000 times. Korea Republic won 45,111 of them (45.1%), the draw came up 27.5% of the time and Ecuador won 27.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12.8%, while the likeliest Korea Republic win is 1-0 (12.6%). Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Full time 3-0. Before kick-off the simulations had Korea Republic winning 45.1% and gave this exact score 4%.
| Korea Republic win | 45.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 27.5% |
| Ecuador win | 27.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.37 – 1.00 |
| Both teams to score | 47% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.8% |
| Korea Republic score first | 49.2% |
| Ecuador score first | 41.2% |
| Korea Republic clean sheet | 36.9% |
| Ecuador clean sheet | 25.7% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420604717 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Korea Republic are favourites. They win 45.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 27.5% for the draw and 27.4% for Ecuador. Including the draw, Korea Republic avoid defeat 72.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12.8% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (12.6%) and 0-0 (9.6%). The likeliest Korea Republic win is 1-0 (12.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 47% of simulations. Korea Republic keep a clean sheet 36.9% of the time and Ecuador 25.7%.
The simulations average 2.38 goals: 1.37 for Korea Republic and 1.00 for Ecuador. Over 1.5 goals lands 68.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 42.4% and over 3.5 goals 21.8%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.