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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated León vs Toluca 100,000 times. Toluca won 46,456 of them (46.5%), the draw came up 25.6% of the time and León won 27.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.4%, while the likeliest Toluca win is 1-2 (9.1%). Both teams score in 65.2% of simulations.
Full time 1-1. Before kick-off the simulations had the draw at 25.6% and gave this exact score 11.4%.
| León win | 27.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.6% |
| Toluca win | 46.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.4%) |
| Expected goals | 1.42 – 1.87 |
| Both teams to score | 65.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.6% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.7% |
| León score first | 39.8% |
| Toluca score first | 54.9% |
| León clean sheet | 15.8% |
| Toluca clean sheet | 24.5% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420578839 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Toluca are favourites. They win 46.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.6% for the draw and 27.9% for León. Including the draw, Toluca avoid defeat 72.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.4% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.1%) and 2-1 (6.9%). The likeliest Toluca win is 1-2 (9.1%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 65.2% of simulations. León keep a clean sheet 15.8% of the time and Toluca 24.5%.
The simulations average 3.29 goals: 1.42 for León and 1.87 for Toluca. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 63.6% and over 3.5 goals 41.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.