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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Metz vs Pau 100,000 times. Metz won 47,050 of them (47.1%), the draw came up 25.5% of the time and Pau won 27.4%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 12%, while the likeliest Metz win is 1-0 (9.5%). Both teams score in 55.4% of simulations.
| Metz win | 47.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.5% |
| Pau win | 27.4% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (12%) |
| Expected goals | 1.62 – 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | 55.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% |
| Metz score first | 55.9% |
| Pau score first | 37.4% |
| Metz clean sheet | 31.2% |
| Pau clean sheet | 20.3% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420626339 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Metz are favourites. They win 47.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.5% for the draw and 27.4% for Pau. Including the draw, Metz avoid defeat 72.6% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 12% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (9.5%) and 2-1 (9.2%). The likeliest Metz win is 1-0 (9.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 55.4% of simulations. Metz keep a clean sheet 31.2% of the time and Pau 20.3%.
The simulations average 2.79 goals: 1.62 for Metz and 1.18 for Pau. Over 1.5 goals lands 76.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 52.7% and over 3.5 goals 30.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.