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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Riga vs Super Nova 100,000 times. Riga won 83,630 of them (83.6%), the draw came up 10.9% of the time and Super Nova won 5.5%. The most likely score is 2-0 (13%), and both teams score in 41.2% of simulations.
Full time 2-1. Before kick-off the simulations had Riga winning 83.6% and gave this exact score 7.5%.
| Riga win | 83.6% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 10.9% |
| Super Nova win | 5.5% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (13%) |
| Expected goals | 2.86 – 0.58 |
| Both teams to score | 41.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 66.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% |
| Riga score first | 79.7% |
| Super Nova score first | 17.2% |
| Riga clean sheet | 55.9% |
| Super Nova clean sheet | 6.1% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420519511 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Riga are favourites. They win 83.6% of our 100,000 simulations, against 10.9% for the draw and 5.5% for Super Nova. Including the draw, Riga avoid defeat 94.5% of the time.
2-0, which came up in 13% of simulations. Next are 3-0 (12.2%) and 1-0 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 41.2% of simulations. Riga keep a clean sheet 55.9% of the time and Super Nova 6.1%.
The simulations average 3.45 goals: 2.86 for Riga and 0.58 for Super Nova. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 66.4% and over 3.5 goals 45%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.