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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Smiltene vs Tukums II 100,000 times. Smiltene won 53,087 of them (53.1%), the draw came up 21.3% of the time and Tukums II won 25.6%. The most likely score is 2-1 (8.2%), and both teams score in 73.2% of simulations.
Full time 3-2. Before kick-off the simulations had Smiltene winning 53.1% and gave this exact score 5.2%.
| Smiltene win | 53.1% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 21.3% |
| Tukums II win | 25.6% |
| Most likely score | 2-1 (8.2%) |
| Expected goals | 2.37 – 1.63 |
| Both teams to score | 73.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.4% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 56.4% |
| Smiltene score first | 60.2% |
| Tukums II score first | 37% |
| Smiltene clean sheet | 20% |
| Tukums II clean sheet | 9.8% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420532849 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Smiltene are favourites. They win 53.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 21.3% for the draw and 25.6% for Tukums II. Including the draw, Smiltene avoid defeat 74.4% of the time.
2-1, which came up in 8.2% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (8%) and 2-2 (6.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 73.2% of simulations. Smiltene keep a clean sheet 20% of the time and Tukums II 9.8%.
The simulations average 4.00 goals: 2.37 for Smiltene and 1.63 for Tukums II. Over 1.5 goals lands 91.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 75.8% and over 3.5 goals 56.4%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.