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  1. Simulations
  2. Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima
Primera Division · 100,000 simulations

Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima prediction

We simulated Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima 100,000 times. Sporting Cristal won 37,510 of them (37.5%), the draw came up 30.4% of the time and Alianza Lima won 32.1%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 14.4%, while the likeliest Sporting Cristal win is 1-0 (8.6%). Both teams score in 53.1% of simulations.

Sporting Cristal badge
Sporting Cristal Estadio Alberto Gallardo
3–2 Full time
Alianza Lima badge
Alianza Lima Away
37.5% 37,510 wins
30.4% Draw
32.1% 32,119 wins
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.21
Likeliest score
1-1 14.4% Top Sporting win: 1-0 8.6%
Both score
53.1%
Over 2.5
46.6%

Full time 3-2. Before kick-off the simulations had Sporting Cristal winning 37.5% and gave this exact score 2.2%.

Simulated 100,000 times Updated Kevin Ortega Estadio Alberto Gallardo, Lima
Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima live score, stats & lineups

Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima in numbers 100,000 simulations · Primera Division · Thursday 29 October, 20:30

Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima simulation probabilities
Sporting Cristal win37.5%
Draw30.4%
Alianza Lima win32.1%
Most likely score1-1 (14.4%)
Expected goals1.33 – 1.21
Both teams to score53.1%
Over 1.5 goals73.7%
Over 2.5 goals46.6%
Over 3.5 goals25.3%
Sporting Cristal score first48.4%
Alianza Lima score first41.6%
Sporting Cristal clean sheet30.1%
Alianza Lima clean sheet26.8%
Football simulation API

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Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima prediction FAQs

Who will win Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

Sporting Cristal are favourites. They win 37.5% of our 100,000 simulations, against 30.4% for the draw and 32.1% for Alianza Lima. Including the draw, Sporting Cristal avoid defeat 67.9% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

1-1, which came up in 14.4% of simulations. Next are 0-0 (10%) and 1-0 (8.6%). The likeliest Sporting Cristal win is 1-0 (8.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

Both teams score in 53.1% of simulations. Sporting Cristal keep a clean sheet 30.1% of the time and Alianza Lima 26.8%.

How many goals will there be in Sporting Cristal vs Alianza Lima?

The simulations average 2.54 goals: 1.33 for Sporting Cristal and 1.21 for Alianza Lima. Over 1.5 goals lands 73.7% of the time, over 2.5 goals 46.6% and over 3.5 goals 25.3%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.