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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated St. Gallen vs Lugano 100,000 times. St. Gallen won 40,390 of them (40.4%), the draw came up 23.9% of the time and Lugano won 35.7%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.3%, while the likeliest St. Gallen win is 2-1 (8.3%). Both teams score in 66.6% of simulations.
| St. Gallen win | 40.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.9% |
| Lugano win | 35.7% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.3%) |
| Expected goals | 1.75 – 1.64 |
| Both teams to score | 66.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.5% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 43.7% |
| St. Gallen score first | 48.4% |
| Lugano score first | 47.5% |
| St. Gallen clean sheet | 19.9% |
| Lugano clean sheet | 17.8% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420590861 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
St. Gallen are favourites. They win 40.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.9% for the draw and 35.7% for Lugano. Including the draw, St. Gallen avoid defeat 64.3% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.3% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.3%) and 1-2 (7.8%). The likeliest St. Gallen win is 2-1 (8.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 66.6% of simulations. St. Gallen keep a clean sheet 19.9% of the time and Lugano 17.8%.
The simulations average 3.39 goals: 1.75 for St. Gallen and 1.64 for Lugano. Over 1.5 goals lands 85.5% of the time, over 2.5 goals 65.4% and over 3.5 goals 43.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.