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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Tepatitlán de Morelos vs Morelia 100,000 times. Morelia won 62,109 of them (62.1%), the draw came up 19.9% of the time and Tepatitlán de Morelos won 18%. The most likely score is 0-2 (9.7%), and both teams score in 55.1% of simulations.
Full time 1-1. Before kick-off the simulations had the draw at 19.9% and gave this exact score 9.2%.
| Tepatitlán de Morelos win | 18% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 19.9% |
| Morelia win | 62.1% |
| Most likely score | 0-2 (9.7%) |
| Expected goals | 1.01 – 2.09 |
| Both teams to score | 55.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.7% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.6% |
| Tepatitlán de Morelos score first | 33% |
| Morelia score first | 62.4% |
| Tepatitlán de Morelos clean sheet | 12.8% |
| Morelia clean sheet | 36.6% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420587028 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Morelia are favourites. They win 62.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 19.9% for the draw and 18% for Tepatitlán de Morelos. Including the draw, Morelia avoid defeat 82% of the time.
0-2, which came up in 9.7% of simulations. Next are 1-2 (9.7%) and 0-1 (9.7%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 55.1% of simulations. Tepatitlán de Morelos keep a clean sheet 12.8% of the time and Morelia 36.6%.
The simulations average 3.10 goals: 1.01 for Tepatitlán de Morelos and 2.09 for Morelia. Over 1.5 goals lands 81% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.7% and over 3.5 goals 37.6%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.