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How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated Thun vs Basel 100,000 times. Thun won 41,276 of them (41.3%), the draw came up 23.8% of the time and Basel won 34.9%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 9.8%, while the likeliest Thun win is 2-1 (8.2%). Both teams score in 69.9% of simulations.
| Thun win | 41.3% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.8% |
| Basel win | 34.9% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (9.8%) |
| Expected goals | 1.88 – 1.72 |
| Both teams to score | 69.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.1% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69.3% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 48.2% |
| Thun score first | 51.6% |
| Basel score first | 44.7% |
| Thun clean sheet | 18.4% |
| Basel clean sheet | 15.7% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420590836 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Thun are favourites. They win 41.3% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.8% for the draw and 34.9% for Basel. Including the draw, Thun avoid defeat 65.1% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 9.8% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (8.2%) and 1-2 (7.5%). The likeliest Thun win is 2-1 (8.2%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 69.9% of simulations. Thun keep a clean sheet 18.4% of the time and Basel 15.7%.
The simulations average 3.59 goals: 1.88 for Thun and 1.72 for Basel. Over 1.5 goals lands 88.1% of the time, over 2.5 goals 69.3% and over 3.5 goals 48.2%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.