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Liga MX · 100,000 simulations

Toluca vs Santos Laguna prediction

We simulated Toluca vs Santos Laguna 100,000 times. Toluca won 79,056 of them (79.1%), the draw came up 13.1% of the time and Santos Laguna won 7.8%. The most likely score is 2-0 (10.6%), and both teams score in 51.2% of simulations.

Toluca badge
Toluca Estadio Nemesio Díez
2–3 Full time
Santos Laguna badge
Santos Laguna Away
79.1% 79,056 wins
13.1% Draw
7.8% 7,818 wins
Expected goals
2.85 – 0.79
Likeliest score
2-0 10.6%
Both score
51.2%
Over 2.5
69.9%

Full time 2-3. Before kick-off the simulations had Santos Laguna winning 7.8%. This exact score was outside the 15 likeliest.

Simulated 100,000 times Updated Luis Rodriguez Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
Toluca vs Santos Laguna live score, stats & lineups

Toluca vs Santos Laguna in numbers 100,000 simulations · Liga MX · Monday 21 September, 01:00

Toluca vs Santos Laguna simulation probabilities
Toluca win79.1%
Draw13.1%
Santos Laguna win7.8%
Most likely score2-0 (10.6%)
Expected goals2.85 – 0.79
Both teams to score51.2%
Over 1.5 goals87.4%
Over 2.5 goals69.9%
Over 3.5 goals49%
Toluca score first78.8%
Santos Laguna score first18.4%
Toluca clean sheet45.5%
Santos Laguna clean sheet6.2%
Football simulation API

Put this simulation in your own models

Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.

GET /api/predictions/generate/420578856
  ?v=2
  &detail=standard
  &include=value,corners,cards

# 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves,
# corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown

Toluca vs Santos Laguna prediction FAQs

Who will win Toluca vs Santos Laguna?

Toluca are favourites. They win 79.1% of our 100,000 simulations, against 13.1% for the draw and 7.8% for Santos Laguna. Including the draw, Toluca avoid defeat 92.2% of the time.

What is the most likely score in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?

2-0, which came up in 10.6% of simulations. Next are 3-0 (9.9%) and 2-1 (8.3%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.

Will both teams score in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?

Both teams score in 51.2% of simulations. Toluca keep a clean sheet 45.5% of the time and Santos Laguna 6.2%.

How many goals will there be in Toluca vs Santos Laguna?

The simulations average 3.64 goals: 2.85 for Toluca and 0.79 for Santos Laguna. Over 1.5 goals lands 87.4% of the time, over 2.5 goals 69.9% and over 3.5 goals 49%.

How does the OddAlerts match simulator work?

Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.

How often is the simulation updated?

Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.