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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated UCV Moquegua vs Alianza Lima 100,000 times. Alianza Lima won 56,777 of them (56.8%), the draw came up 25.2% of the time and UCV Moquegua won 18%. The most likely score is 0-1 (13.7%), and both teams score in 44.9% of simulations.
Full time 0-1. Before kick-off the simulations had Alianza Lima winning 56.8% and gave this exact score 13.7%.
| UCV Moquegua win | 18% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 25.2% |
| Alianza Lima win | 56.8% |
| Most likely score | 0-1 (13.7%) |
| Expected goals | 0.81 – 1.65 |
| Both teams to score | 44.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.5% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% |
| UCV Moquegua score first | 33.9% |
| Alianza Lima score first | 56.9% |
| UCV Moquegua clean sheet | 19.6% |
| Alianza Lima clean sheet | 44.7% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420580111 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Alianza Lima are favourites. They win 56.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 25.2% for the draw and 18% for UCV Moquegua. Including the draw, Alianza Lima avoid defeat 82% of the time.
0-1, which came up in 13.7% of simulations. Next are 1-1 (11.7%) and 0-2 (11.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 44.9% of simulations. UCV Moquegua keep a clean sheet 19.6% of the time and Alianza Lima 44.7%.
The simulations average 2.46 goals: 0.81 for UCV Moquegua and 1.65 for Alianza Lima. Over 1.5 goals lands 70.6% of the time, over 2.5 goals 44.5% and over 3.5 goals 23.5%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.