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For this page
How to Read Match Simulations Match simulations plays every upcoming game 100,000 times and counts what happened: results, goals, scorelines, corners, cards and where the simulated chance beats the price.No guide matches yet. Press enter to search the full text.
We simulated United States vs Mexico 100,000 times. United States won 37,852 of them (37.9%), the draw came up 24.7% of the time and Mexico won 37.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 11.5%, while the likeliest United States win is 1-0 (8.5%). Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Full time 3-0. Before kick-off the simulations had United States winning 37.9% and gave this exact score 2.8%.
| United States win | 37.9% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 24.7% |
| Mexico win | 37.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (11.5%) |
| Expected goals | 1.43 – 1.42 |
| Both teams to score | 57% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.9% |
| United States score first | 47.8% |
| Mexico score first | 46.5% |
| United States clean sheet | 24.5% |
| Mexico clean sheet | 24.3% |
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420603403 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
United States are favourites. They win 37.9% of our 100,000 simulations, against 24.7% for the draw and 37.5% for Mexico. Including the draw, United States avoid defeat 62.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 11.5% of simulations. Next are 1-0 (8.5%) and 0-1 (8.4%). The likeliest United States win is 1-0 (8.5%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 57% of simulations. United States keep a clean sheet 24.5% of the time and Mexico 24.3%.
The simulations average 2.85 goals: 1.43 for United States and 1.42 for Mexico. Over 1.5 goals lands 77.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 54% and over 3.5 goals 31.9%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.