Recent games suggest this usually stays below four goals: Uzbekistan have seen Over 3.5 in just 2/10, and Colombia 4/10. Even with a 37-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings (13th v 50th), this line gives room for a 2-1 or 3-0.

This leans on at least one defence holding up: Colombia have 5 clean sheets in their last 10 and Uzbekistan have 4/10. It’s not perfect because both have failed to score only 1/10, so the model (58.3%) is doing some heavy lifting.

Uzbekistan have scored in 9/10, and Colombia keep a clean sheet 5/10, so a home goal is live at a big price. The 37-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings (13th v 50th) is the main risk to this landing.

South Africa have scored in 7/10, and Czech Republic have only 4 clean sheets in their last 10, so one away goal is very plausible. Even with Czech 39th vs 60th in the FIFA World Rankings, the model is still at 69%.

BTTS has landed in 6/10 for both teams, with Czech Republic scoring in 9/10 and South Africa in 7/10. Czech’s 4 clean sheets/10 leaves room for both to contribute, and 2.05 backs the model’s 51.8%.

Over 1.5 has hit in 8/10 Czech Republic matches and 7/10 South Africa matches, so the recent baseline is fairly goal-friendly. The model prices it at 72% and you’re getting 1.40.

Switzerland have seen under 2.5 goals in 6 of their last 10 (only 4/10 over 2.5), and they concede just 0.9 per game. Bosnia’s games are often higher-scoring (6/10 over 2.5), but the model still makes this a 57.7% play at 1.81.

Bosnia have scored in 9 of their last 10, and Switzerland kept only 4 clean sheets in their last 10 (conceded in 6/10). A 45-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings is a worry, but the model still gives this 53.3% at 1.8.

The recent BTTS rates argue against this (Switzerland 6/10, Bosnia 8/10), so it’s not a pure form pick. It mainly leans on Switzerland’s 4 clean sheets in 10, Bosnia’s 2 clean sheets in 10, and the model at 55.3%.

Canada games have been tight: over 2.5 landed just 1/10, with only 0.5 goals conceded per game. Qatar average 0.5 goals for and are under 2.5 in 7/10, matching the model’s 64.5%.

At least one blank looks likely: Canada have 6 clean sheets in 10 and BTTS has hit only 3/10 in their games. Qatar have failed to score in 6/10, so the model’s 60.9% lines up well.

Form leans against it (Qatar scored in only 4/10 and Canada have 6 clean sheets/10), but the price is big for a near coin-flip model at 49.6%. Qatar did score in a 1-1 draw with Switzerland recently.

A first-half goal has landed in 6 of Mexico’s last 10 and 5 of Korea Republic’s last 10, so the early goal trend is solid on both sides. Our model still makes this a 76% spot even with tournament volatility.

Recent totals point to at least two goals: Mexico have gone over 1.5 in 6/10 and Korea Republic in 7/10. With both averaging 1.8 and 1.5 goals scored, the 72.2% model edge looks fair.

Korea Republic have scored in 7 of their last 10, but this is a tougher ask because Mexico have 7 clean sheets in 10 and concede just 0.4 per game. This pick mainly rests on the model’s 67.6% probability.

Early action looks very likely: the United States have seen a first-half goal in 10/10 games, and Australia in 7/10. With the model at 77.7%, you mainly need one moment before the break.

Australia have scored in 7/10, and they face a United States side with just 1 clean sheet in 10 and 1.6 goals conceded per game. That defensive profile keeps the away goal firmly in play.

Corner volume trends higher than this line: United States matches average 10 total corners (10/10 with data), and Australia’s average 7.1 (10/10). Even allowing for tournament variance, 8+ corners is a fair ask.

Goal-heavy recent profiles make 2+ goals plausible: Scotland have gone Over 1.5 in 7/10 and Morocco in 8/10, with 2.2 and 2.0 goals-for averages respectively. Even with a 35-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings, both sides usually contribute to open scorelines.

Scotland have scored in 8/10, so the baseline is solid, but Morocco’s defence is strong (0.5 goals-against average, 5/10 clean sheets), and they’re 7th in the FIFA World Rankings. This pick leans on the 63.2% model probability as much as form.

Both attacks usually show up (Scotland scored in 8/10, Morocco 9/10), which is the main case. The warning sign is BTTS has landed only 5/10 for Scotland and 4/10 for Morocco, so the price is doing some of the work here.

Brazil’s games went over 3.5 in 4/10 and Haiti’s in 2/10, so most recent totals stay below four. Even with Brazil’s 6–2 outlier, the model still gives 76.5% at 1.99.

With a 77-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings (Brazil 6th, Haiti 83rd), Haiti being shut out is a real risk; they failed to score 3/10. Brazil’s low 2 clean sheets/10 is a warning, so this leans on mismatch.

Haiti have scored in 7/10 and Brazil kept only 2 clean sheets/10, which keeps an away goal live despite the 77-place FIFA World Rankings gap. The model is close to a coin flip at 48.2% with 2.37.

Both sides have been in 3+ goal games often: Türkiye have gone over 2.5 in 6/10 and Paraguay also 6/10, with Türkiye’s matches clearing over 1.5 in 8/10. The model is 53.1% and 2.23 is a playable price.

Türkiye’s attack looks capable of two: 2.2 goals-for avg and scored in 8/10, while Paraguay have just 4 clean sheets in 10 and concede 1.3 per game. There’s also an 18-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings (22nd vs 40th).

Paraguay have found the net in 8/10, and Türkiye’s defence hasn’t been airtight (4 clean sheets/10, 1.3 conceded avg). It’s slightly countered by Türkiye being 22nd to Paraguay’s 40th in the FIFA World Rankings, but the model still has 59.6%.

Sweden have seen both teams score in 7 of their last 10 and kept 0 clean sheets, so they usually concede. Netherlands have had BTTS in 6/10 and only 3 clean sheets, so there’s a clear route to goals at both ends.

Recent totals point high: Netherlands have gone over 2.5 goals in 7/10 and Sweden in 6/10, with both also over 1.5 in 9/10. That aligns with the model’s 57.1% at 1.95.

Sweden have scored in 7 of their last 10, and Netherlands have only 3 clean sheets in 10 (so they’ve conceded in 7/10). The 30-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings is a risk, but the model still makes it 62.8%.

Both sides have scored in 10/10 of their last 10, so the baseline for goals at both ends is strong. The main risk is defensive form: Germany have 5 clean sheets/10 and Côte d'Ivoire 6/10, so a shutout is still plausible.

Germany’s games have gone over 2.5 goals in 8/10 and they average 3.5 goals scored, which can carry this on its own. Côte d'Ivoire are less reliable for high totals (over 2.5 in 5/10), so it leans on Germany’s attack.

Côte d'Ivoire have scored in 10/10 with 2.0 goals-for average, so they’re consistently getting on the board. Germany’s defence is solid (0.7 conceded average, 5 clean sheets/10), but they still allow goals often enough to keep this live.

Ecuador’s games have been very tight (0/10 over 3.5; 0.6 goals conceded avg), and there’s a 59-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings (23rd v 82nd). The main risk is Curacao’s volatility (6/10 over 3.5).

Tunisia have seen 7/10 games go over 1.5, and Japan 6/10. Tunisia concede 1.8 goals per game on average, so two total goals doesn’t require a shootout.

Japan keep clean sheets in 6/10 and BTTS landed in only 3/10 of their matches. Tunisia failed to score 3/10, and with a 28-place gap in the FIFA World Rankings, Japan can control the game defensively.

Tunisia allow 1.8 goals per game on average and have just 3 clean sheets in 10. Japan have scored in 8/10, so a second Japanese goal is plausible even if Tunisia contribute nothing.