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Bundesliga Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Bundesliga

Find value bets for Bundesliga fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

FC Union Berlin vs Schalke 04

good

Fri 11th, 19:30

HT Result

Away

3.62 Fair: 2.56 Pinnacle

+41.41%

Model: 39.1%

FT Result

Away

3.18 Fair: 2.42 1xBet

+31.4%

Model: 41.4%

BTTS

No

2.64 Fair: 2.23 Betfair Exchange

+18.39%

Model: 44.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.72 Fair: 1.50 Kambi Group

+14.67%

Model: 66.7%

Borussia Dortmund vs Paderborn

good

Sat 12th, 14:30

FT Result

Away

12.00 Fair: 5.15 Betfair Exchange

+133.01%

Model: 19.4%

HT Result

Away

8.83 Fair: 4.84 Pinnacle

+82.44%

Model: 20.7%

Double Chance

Draw Away

4.08 Fair: 2.40 1xBet

+70%

Model: 41.6%

FT Result

Draw

7.40 Fair: 4.50 Betfair Exchange

+64.44%

Model: 22.2%

HT Result

Draw

3.31 Fair: 2.80 Pinnacle

+18.21%

Model: 35.8%

BTTS

No

2.20 Fair: 2.08 Betfair Exchange

+5.77%

Model: 48.1%

FC Augsburg vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen

good

Sat 12th, 14:30

FT Result

Home

4.27 Fair: 2.77 1xBet

+54.15%

Model: 36.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.10 Fair: 1.69 Kambi Group

+24.26%

Model: 59.3%

HT Result

Home

4.36 Fair: 3.61 Pinnacle

+20.78%

Model: 27.7%

BTTS

No

2.94 Fair: 2.65 Betfair Exchange

+10.94%

Model: 37.7%

FT Result

Draw

4.40 Fair: 4.31 FanDuel

+2.09%

Model: 23.2%

HT Result

Draw

2.75 Fair: 2.71 Pinnacle

+1.48%

Model: 37%

TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart

good

Sat 12th, 14:30

BTTS

No

3.25 Fair: 2.94 Betfair Exchange

+10.54%

Model: 34%

FT Result

Away

2.80 Fair: 2.55 Kambi Group

+9.8%

Model: 39.2%

HT Result

Home

2.87 Fair: 2.68 Pinnacle

+7.09%

Model: 37.3%

FSV Mainz 05 vs Eintracht Frankfurt

good

Sat 12th, 14:30

BTTS

No

2.88 Fair: 2.30 Betfair Exchange

+25.22%

Model: 43.4%

FT Result

Away

3.60 Fair: 3.37 Betfair Exchange

+6.82%

Model: 29.7%

HT Result

Away

3.82 Fair: 3.81 Pinnacle

+0.26%

Model: 26.2%

SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach

good

Sat 12th, 14:30

HT Result

Away

4.66 Fair: 3.49 Pinnacle

+33.52%

Model: 28.6%

FT Result

Away

4.80 Fair: 3.88 Betfair Exchange

+23.71%

Model: 25.8%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.20 Fair: 2.05 1xBet

+7.32%

Model: 48.7%

BTTS

No

2.46 Fair: 2.38 Betfair Exchange

+3.36%

Model: 42%

FC Köln vs Werder Bremen

good

Sat 12th, 17:30

FT Result

Away

3.45 Fair: 3.05 Betfair Exchange

+13.11%

Model: 32.8%

HT Result

Away

3.77 Fair: 3.59 Pinnacle

+5.01%

Model: 27.9%

BTTS

No

2.70 Fair: 2.60 Betfair Exchange

+3.85%

Model: 38.5%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.79 Fair: 1.77 1xBet

+1.13%

Model: 56.5%

RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV

good

Sun 13th, 14:30

FT Result

Away

7.60 Fair: 6.12 Betfair Exchange

+24.18%

Model: 16.4%

HT Result

Away

6.78 Fair: 5.74 Pinnacle

+18.12%

Model: 17.4%

FT Result

Draw

5.70 Fair: 5.03 Betfair Exchange

+13.32%

Model: 19.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.05 Fair: 2.76 Kambi Group

+10.51%

Model: 36.2%

BTTS

No

2.36 Fair: 2.32 Betfair Exchange

+1.72%

Model: 43%

Elversberg vs FC Bayern München

good

Sun 13th, 16:30

FT Result

Home

14.00 Fair: 5.23 Kambi Group

+167.69%

Model: 19.1%

Double Chance

Home Draw

5.25 Fair: 2.55 Kambi Group

+105.88%

Model: 39.3%

HT Result

Home

8.90 Fair: 4.57 1xBet

+94.75%

Model: 21.9%

FT Result

Draw

9.00 Fair: 4.96 Betfair Exchange

+81.45%

Model: 20.2%

HT Result

Draw

3.80 Fair: 2.89 Pinnacle

+31.49%

Model: 34.6%

BTTS

No

2.56 Fair: 2.46 FanDuel

+4.07%

Model: 40.6%

FC Bayern München vs FC Union Berlin

good

Fri 18th, 19:30

FT Result

Away

18.50 Fair: 9.09 1xBet

+103.52%

Model: 11%

FT Result

Draw

10.20 Fair: 5.78 1xBet

+76.47%

Model: 17.3%

Double Chance

Draw Away

5.50 Fair: 3.53 Bet365

+55.81%

Model: 28.3%

HT Result

Away

10.00 Fair: 6.57 Bet365

+52.21%

Model: 15.2%

HT Result

Draw

3.75 Fair: 2.92 Bet365

+28.42%

Model: 34.2%

BTTS

No

2.05 Fair: 1.98 Bet365

+3.54%

Model: 50.5%

Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg

good

Sat 19th, 14:30

BTTS

No

2.62 Fair: 2.38 Bet365

+10.08%

Model: 42%

FT Result

Home

2.39 Fair: 2.29 1xBet

+4.37%

Model: 43.6%

Eintracht Frankfurt vs SC Freiburg

good

Sat 19th, 14:30

FT Result

Away

2.95 Fair: 2.60 1xBet

+13.46%

Model: 38.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.66 Fair: 1.57 Bet365

+5.73%

Model: 63.5%

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs FSV Mainz 05

good

Sat 19th, 14:30

HT Result

Away

2.87 Fair: 2.73 Bet365

+5.13%

Model: 36.7%

FT Result

Away

2.47 Fair: 2.35 1xBet

+5.11%

Model: 42.5%

BTTS

No

2.50 Fair: 2.39 Bet365

+4.6%

Model: 41.9%

Hamburger SV vs FC Köln

good

Sat 19th, 14:30

HT Result

Away

3.00 Fair: 2.76 Bet365

+8.7%

Model: 36.2%

BTTS

No

2.37 Fair: 2.24 Bet365

+5.8%

Model: 44.6%

FT Result

Away

2.63 Fair: 2.54 1xBet

+3.54%

Model: 39.4%

VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund

good

Sat 19th, 17:30

BTTS

No

3.25 Fair: 2.72 Bet365

+19.49%

Model: 36.7%

HT Result

Home

2.75 Fair: 2.69 Bet365

+2.23%

Model: 37.2%

FT Result

Home

2.37 Fair: 2.32 1xBet

+2.16%

Model: 43.1%

HT Result

Draw

2.62 Fair: 2.61 Bet365

+0.38%

Model: 38.3%

Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs RB Leipzig

good

Sun 20th, 14:30

BTTS

No

3.00 Fair: 2.46 Bet365

+21.95%

Model: 40.7%

FT Result

Away

3.61 Fair: 3.57 1xBet

+1.12%

Model: 28%

Schalke 04 vs Elversberg

good

Sun 20th, 16:30

FT Result

Away

3.55 Fair: 2.82 1xBet

+25.89%

Model: 35.5%

HT Result

Away

3.60 Fair: 3.20 Bet365

+12.5%

Model: 31.2%

Double Chance

Draw Away

1.70 Fair: 1.69 Bet365

+0.59%

Model: 59.2%

Paderborn vs TSG Hoffenheim

good

Sun 20th, 18:30

FT Result

Home

4.62 Fair: 2.49 1xBet

+85.54%

Model: 40.2%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.20 Fair: 1.60 Bet365

+37.5%

Model: 62.4%

HT Result

Home

4.33 Fair: 3.23 Bet365

+34.06%

Model: 31%

FT Result

Draw

4.67 Fair: 4.50 1xBet

+3.78%

Model: 22.2%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.