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Premiership Value Bets

Find EV Betting Opportunities

Value Bets for Premiership

Find value bets for Premiership fixtures. We compare our probability model against bookmaker odds to identify bets where the odds are higher than our implied probability suggests.

St. Mirren vs Aberdeen

high

Sat 4th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

2.20 Fair: 2.12 Betfair Exchange

+3.77%

Model: 47.2%

HT Result

Home

2.75 Fair: 2.70 Bet365

+1.85%

Model: 37.1%

Motherwell vs Falkirk

high

Sat 4th, 15:00

HT Result

Away

5.16 Fair: 4.18 Pinnacle

+23.44%

Model: 23.9%

FT Result

Away

4.80 Fair: 4.15 Betfair Exchange

+15.66%

Model: 24.1%

Double Chance

Draw Away

2.05 Fair: 2.01 Bet365

+1.99%

Model: 49.7%

BTTS

No

2.00 Fair: 1.98 Kambi Group

+1.01%

Model: 50.6%

Hibernian vs Kilmarnock

high

Sat 4th, 15:00

BTTS

No

2.12 Fair: 1.70 Kambi Group

+24.71%

Model: 58.8%

FT Result

Home

1.54 Fair: 1.49 Betfair Exchange

+3.36%

Model: 67.3%

Rangers vs Dundee United

high

Sat 4th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

12.00 Fair: 7.75 Betfair Exchange

+54.84%

Model: 12.9%

HT Result

Away

9.26 Fair: 6.42 Pinnacle

+44.24%

Model: 15.6%

FT Result

Draw

6.46 Fair: 5.31 Pinnacle

+21.66%

Model: 18.9%

Double Chance

Draw Away

3.75 Fair: 3.15 Bet365

+19.05%

Model: 31.8%

Livingston vs Hearts

high

Sun 5th, 14:00

HT Result

Home

5.92 Fair: 4.28 Pinnacle

+38.32%

Model: 23.4%

FT Result

Home

6.00 Fair: 4.82 Betfair Exchange

+24.48%

Model: 20.7%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.40 Fair: 2.20 Kambi Group

+9.09%

Model: 45.4%

FT Result

Draw

4.30 Fair: 4.05 Kambi Group

+6.17%

Model: 24.7%

BTTS

No

2.02 Fair: 1.96 Kambi Group

+3.06%

Model: 51.1%

Dundee vs Celtic

high

Sun 5th, 16:30

FT Result

Home

6.00 Fair: 3.95 Pinnacle

+51.9%

Model: 25.3%

HT Result

Home

5.79 Fair: 4.37 Pinnacle

+32.49%

Model: 22.9%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.50 Fair: 2.05 Bet365

+21.95%

Model: 48.9%

FT Result

Draw

4.82 Fair: 4.24 Pinnacle

+13.68%

Model: 23.6%

HT Result

Draw

2.75 Fair: 2.62 Pinnacle

+4.96%

Model: 38.2%

Aberdeen vs Hibernian

high

Sat 11th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

3.10 Fair: 2.90 Bet365

+6.9%

Model: 34.5%

HT Result

Home

3.60 Fair: 3.38 Bet365

+6.51%

Model: 29.6%

Double Chance

Home Draw

1.66 Fair: 1.62 Bet365

+2.47%

Model: 61.7%

Kilmarnock vs Dundee

high

Sat 11th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

2.33 Fair: 2.08 1xBet

+12.02%

Model: 48.2%

Dundee United vs Livingston

high

Sat 11th, 15:00

HT Result

Away

4.75 Fair: 4.42 Bet365

+7.47%

Model: 22.6%

BTTS

No

2.00 Fair: 1.91 Bet365

+4.71%

Model: 52.4%

Hearts vs Motherwell

high

Sat 11th, 15:00

FT Result

Home

1.94 Fair: 1.86 1xBet

+4.3%

Model: 53.8%

BTTS

No

1.95 Fair: 1.94 Bet365

+0.52%

Model: 51.6%

Celtic vs St. Mirren

high

Sat 11th, 15:00

FT Result

Away

12.00 Fair: 5.83 Bet365

+105.83%

Model: 17.2%

HT Result

Away

9.50 Fair: 5.17 Bet365

+83.75%

Model: 19.4%

Double Chance

Draw Away

4.33 Fair: 2.69 Bet365

+60.97%

Model: 37.2%

FT Result

Draw

6.25 Fair: 4.98 Bet365

+25.5%

Model: 20.1%

BTTS

Yes

1.95 Fair: 1.75 Bet365

+11.43%

Model: 57%

HT Result

Draw

3.00 Fair: 2.76 Bet365

+8.7%

Model: 36.3%

Falkirk vs Rangers

high

Sun 12th, 12:00

FT Result

Home

4.85 Fair: 2.94 1xBet

+64.97%

Model: 34%

HT Result

Home

4.75 Fair: 3.14 Bet365

+51.27%

Model: 31.8%

Double Chance

Home Draw

2.10 Fair: 1.69 Bet365

+24.26%

Model: 59.1%

What is a Value Bet?

A value bet exists when the bookmaker's odds are higher than our calculated fair odds (implied from probability). This means the bookmaker is offering better odds than the true probability suggests.

How We Calculate Value

We convert our probability model's prediction into implied odds using: Fair Odds = 100 / Probability%

For example, if we give a 50% chance to an outcome, the fair odds would be 2.00. If the bookmaker offers 2.20, that's a +10% value bet.

Value % Explained

0-5% - Small value edge
5-10% - Good value
10%+ - Strong value

More Value Bets

Looking for value bets across all leagues? Visit our main Value Bets page for comprehensive coverage.