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AFC Rushden & Diamonds
Basford United
AFC Rushden & Diamonds have scored 1.80 goals a game and conceded 0.60 across their last 5 home games in the Non League Div One: Northern Midlands this season, while Basford United have scored 1.71 and conceded 1.86 across their last 7 away games. Both teams have scored in 2 of AFC Rushden & Diamonds' last 5 home games and 5 of Basford United's last 7 away games. Over 9.5 corners has landed in none of AFC Rushden & Diamonds' last 5 home games and 1 of Basford United's last 7 away games. AFC Rushden & Diamonds' last 5 home games have averaged 1.8 corners and Basford United's last 7 away games 3.6. Stats as of 13 Nov 2026, 18:07 UK.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds' last 5 home games and Basford United's last 7 away games in the Non League Div One: Northern Midlands this season.
From the OddAlerts probability model. See every market
AFC Rushden & Diamonds vs Basford United kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 24 November 2026 in the Non League Div One: Northern Midlands, at Hayden Road, Rushden.
The OddAlerts probability model gives AFC Rushden & Diamonds a 50% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Basford United 28%.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds have scored 1.80 goals a game and conceded 0.60 across their last 5 home games in the Non League Div One: Northern Midlands this season, while Basford United have scored 1.71 and conceded 1.86 across their last 7 away games. Both teams have scored in 2 of AFC Rushden & Diamonds' last 5 home games and 5 of Basford United's last 7 away games.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds are 13th with 21 points from 14 games. Basford United are 16th with 20 points from 17 games.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds2W 3D 0L · 5 home games
Basford United3W 1D 3L · 7 away games
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 2 of 540% | Win | 3 of 743% |
| 3 of 560% | Draw | 1 of 714% |
| 0 of 50% | Loss | 3 of 743% |
| 9 | Points | 10 |
| 1.80 | Points per game | 1.43 |
| 6 | Goal difference | -1 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.00 | xG per game | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | xGA per game | 0.00 |
| 9.00 | xG performance | 12.00 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 11% | Possession | 18% |
| 5.60 | Dangerous attacks | 19.86 |
| 6.40 | Dangerous attacks against | 23.00 |
| Shots | ||
| 2.20 | Shots for | 3.71 |
| 2.40 | Shots against | 5.86 |
| 1.00 | On target for | 2.43 |
| 0.80 | On target against | 3.29 |
| 82% | Shot conversion | 46% |
| 45% | On-target accuracy | 65% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 0.00 | Tackles | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Fouls committed | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Fouls won | 0.00 |
| 0.40 | Offsides | 0.14 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 2.40 | Goals per game (total) | 3.57 |
| 9 | Goals scored | 12 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game | 1.71 |
| 3 | Goals conceded | 13 |
| 0.60 | Conceded per game | 1.86 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 2 of 540% | Scored first | 4 of 757% |
| 2 of 540% | Failed to score | 1 of 714% |
| 3 of 560% | Clean sheet | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 540% | BTTS | 5 of 771% |
| 1 of 520% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 5 of 771% |
| 3 of 560% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 5 of 771% |
| Total goals | ||
| 3 of 560% | Over 0.5 | 6 of 786% |
| 3 of 560% | Over 1.5 | 5 of 771% |
| 2 of 540% | Over 2.5 | 5 of 771% |
| 2 of 540% | Over 3.5 | 3 of 743% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 3 of 560% | Scored 1+ | 6 of 786% |
| 2 of 540% | Scored 2+ | 4 of 757% |
| 2 of 540% | Scored 3+ | 2 of 729% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 2 of 540% | Conceded 1+ | 5 of 771% |
| 1 of 520% | Conceded 2+ | 3 of 743% |
| 0 of 50% | Conceded 3+ | 2 of 729% |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 1 of 520% | Winning at HT | 2 of 729% |
| 4 of 580% | Drawing at HT | 3 of 743% |
| 0 of 50% | Losing at HT | 2 of 729% |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 1.80 | Total corners | 3.57 |
| 1.20 | Corners for | 1.57 |
| 0.60 | Corners against | 2.00 |
| 1 of 520% | Most corners | 1 of 714% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 1 of 520% | Over 7.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 1 of 520% | Over 8.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 0 of 50% | Over 9.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 0 of 50% | Over 10.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 0 of 50% | Over 11.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 0 of 50% | Over 12.5 | 0 of 70% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 1 of 520% | For over 4.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 1 of 520% | For over 5.5 | 0 of 70% |
| 0 of 50% | For over 6.5 | 0 of 70% |
| 0 of 50% | For over 7.5 | 0 of 70% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 0 of 50% | Against over 4.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 0 of 50% | Against over 5.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 0 of 50% | Against over 6.5 | 1 of 714% |
| By half | ||
| 0.40 | 1H total | 2.29 |
| 0.40 | 1H for | 0.86 |
| 0.00 | 1H against | 1.43 |
| 1.40 | 2H total | 2.29 |
| 0.80 | 2H for | 0.86 |
| 0.60 | 2H against | 1.43 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 4.60 | Total cards | 3.14 |
| 1.60 | Cards received | 2.14 |
| 3.00 | Opponent cards | 1.00 |
| 0 of 50% | Most cards | 4 of 757% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 3 of 560% | Over 2.5 | 6 of 786% |
| 3 of 560% | Over 3.5 | 3 of 743% |
| 3 of 560% | Over 4.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 2 of 540% | Over 5.5 | 1 of 714% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 4 of 580% | Received 1+ | 6 of 786% |
| 3 of 560% | Received 2+ | 4 of 757% |
| 1 of 520% | Received 3+ | 4 of 757% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 5 of 5100% | Opponent 1+ | 5 of 771% |
| 4 of 580% | Opponent 2+ | 3 of 743% |
| 3 of 560% | Opponent 3+ | 0 of 70% |
| By half | ||
| 1.20 | 1H total | 0.71 |
| 0.80 | 1H received | 0.57 |
| 3.40 | 2H total | 2.71 |
| 0.80 | 2H received | 1.71 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 4.60 | Total shots (match) | 9.57 |
| 1.80 | Total on target (match) | 5.71 |
| 180% | On-target conversion | 71% |
AFC Rushden & Diamonds' last 5 home games and Basford United's last 7 away games in the Non League Div One: Northern Midlands this season. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
AFC Rushden & Diamonds4W 3D 3L · 10 games
Basford United4W 1D 5L · 10 games
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 4 of 1040% | Win | 4 of 1040% |
| 3 of 1030% | Draw | 1 of 1010% |
| 3 of 1030% | Loss | 5 of 1050% |
| 15 | Points | 13 |
| 1.50 | Points per game | 1.30 |
| 5 | Goal difference | 0 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.00 | xG per game | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | xGA per game | 0.00 |
| 19.00 | xG performance | 22.00 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 22% | Possession | 4% |
| 20.60 | Dangerous attacks | 5.80 |
| 17.80 | Dangerous attacks against | 6.20 |
| Shots | ||
| 4.50 | Shots for | 0.70 |
| 4.10 | Shots against | 1.00 |
| 2.20 | On target for | 0.60 |
| 1.80 | On target against | 0.60 |
| 42% | Shot conversion | 314% |
| 49% | On-target accuracy | 86% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 0.00 | Tackles | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Fouls committed | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Fouls won | 0.00 |
| 0.30 | Offsides | 0.00 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 3.30 | Goals per game (total) | 4.40 |
| 19 | Goals scored | 22 |
| 1.90 | Scored per game | 2.20 |
| 14 | Goals conceded | 22 |
| 1.40 | Conceded per game | 2.20 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Scored first | 4 of 1040% |
| 3 of 1030% | Failed to score | 0 of 100% |
| 2 of 1020% | Clean sheet | 0 of 100% |
| 6 of 1060% | BTTS | 10 of 10100% |
| 4 of 1040% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 9 of 1090% |
| 7 of 1070% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 10 of 10100% |
| Total goals | ||
| 9 of 1090% | Over 0.5 | 10 of 10100% |
| 7 of 1070% | Over 1.5 | 10 of 10100% |
| 5 of 1050% | Over 2.5 | 9 of 1090% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 3.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Scored 1+ | 10 of 10100% |
| 5 of 1050% | Scored 2+ | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | Scored 3+ | 3 of 1030% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Conceded 1+ | 10 of 10100% |
| 3 of 1030% | Conceded 2+ | 6 of 1060% |
| 2 of 1020% | Conceded 3+ | 3 of 1030% |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Winning at HT | 2 of 1020% |
| 4 of 1040% | Drawing at HT | 2 of 1020% |
| 1 of 1010% | Losing at HT | 6 of 1060% |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 3.80 | Total corners | 1.20 |
| 2.70 | Corners for | 0.50 |
| 1.10 | Corners against | 0.70 |
| 4 of 1040% | Most corners | 0 of 100% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 3 of 1030% | Over 7.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 8.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 9.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 10.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 11.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 12.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 3 of 1030% | For over 4.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 3 of 1030% | For over 5.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 6.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 7.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 0 of 100% | Against over 4.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 0 of 100% | Against over 5.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 0 of 100% | Against over 6.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| By half | ||
| 1.80 | 1H total | 0.50 |
| 1.20 | 1H for | 0.20 |
| 0.60 | 1H against | 0.30 |
| 2.00 | 2H total | 0.70 |
| 1.50 | 2H for | 0.30 |
| 0.50 | 2H against | 0.40 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 4.50 | Total cards | 3.10 |
| 2.60 | Cards received | 1.70 |
| 1.90 | Opponent cards | 1.40 |
| 5 of 1050% | Most cards | 4 of 1040% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Over 2.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 5 of 1050% | Over 3.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 4.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 5.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 9 of 1090% | Received 1+ | 8 of 1080% |
| 6 of 1060% | Received 2+ | 5 of 1050% |
| 4 of 1040% | Received 3+ | 3 of 1030% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Opponent 1+ | 10 of 10100% |
| 6 of 1060% | Opponent 2+ | 4 of 1040% |
| 3 of 1030% | Opponent 3+ | 1 of 1010% |
| By half | ||
| 1.10 | 1H total | 0.80 |
| 0.60 | 1H received | 0.40 |
| 3.30 | 2H total | 2.50 |
| 2.00 | 2H received | 1.40 |
| AFC Rushden & Diamonds | Stat | Basford United |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 8.60 | Total shots (match) | 1.70 |
| 4.00 | Total on target (match) | 1.20 |
| 86% | On-target conversion | 367% |
AFC Rushden & Diamonds' last 10 games and Basford United's last 10 games in the Non League Div One: Northern Midlands this season. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Stats as of 13 Nov 2026, 18:07 UK.
Lineups will appear here when they're predicted and confirmed.
Coventry United
0–1
defeat
Burton Albion
0–4
defeat
Carlton Town
2–4
defeat
Loughborough University
0–1
defeat
Belper Town
2–1
win
Boldmere St Michaels
1–1
draw
Morecambe
2–1
win
Long Eaton United FC
5–3
win
Bugbrooke St Michaels
1–0
win
Braintree Town
2–1
win
Rugby Borough
5–0
win
Bedworth United
0–0
draw
Peterborough Sports
3–1
win
Shepshed Dynamo
1–1
draw
Grantham Town
3–2
win
Desborough Town
3–0
win
Corby Town
3–3
draw
Chasetown
1–3
defeat
Long Eaton United FC
1–1
draw
Pens
Long Eaton United FC
1–1
draw
Nuneaton Town
3–2
win
Coleshill Town
0–0
draw
Barwell
1–1
draw
Kimberley Miners Welfare
5–0
win
Banbury United
1–2
defeat
Milton Keynes Irish
2–2
draw
Coleshill Town
2–2
draw
Lichfield City
1–2
defeat
Rugby Borough
1–1
draw
Wellingborough Town
1–1
draw
No games match these filters.
Sutton Coldfield Town
1–2
defeat
Mickleover Sports
1–2
defeat
Bourne Town
4–2
win
Grantham Town
2–4
defeat
Coventry United
3–1
win
Boston Town FC
2–1
win
Coleshill Town
2–4
defeat
Corby Town
1–1
draw
St Ives Town
5–1
win
Loughborough University
1–4
defeat
Bedworth United
0–1
defeat
Long Eaton United FC
0–0
draw
Halesowen Town
1–3
defeat
Belper Town
2–1
win
Bedworth United
0–0
draw
Pens
Corby Town
1–0
win
Shepshed Dynamo
0–1
defeat
Wellingborough Town
1–5
defeat
Rugby Borough
3–5
defeat
Barwell
1–0
win
Ilkeston Town
1–4
defeat
Lincoln United
4–3
win
Long Eaton United FC
0–2
defeat
Rugby Borough
2–1
win
Shepshed Dynamo
1–1
draw
Carlton Town
1–1
draw
Wellingborough Town
2–1
win
Anstey Nomads
0–4
defeat
Lichfield City
0–3
defeat
Coventry Sphinx
2–1
win
No games match these filters.
Results before kick-off, most recent first, from each team's side. Open a game to see its full stats.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellingborough Town |
17 | 15 | 2 | 0 | 48 | 17 | +31 | 47 | |
| 2 | Sutton Coldfield Town |
17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 23 | +14 | 36 | |
| 3 | Loughborough University |
17 | 10 | 2 | 5 | 38 | 24 | +14 | 32 | |
| 4 | Nuneaton Town |
18 | 10 | 1 | 7 | 30 | 20 | +10 | 31 | |
| 5 | Carlton Town |
18 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 29 | 27 | +2 | 31 | |
| 6 | Mickleover Sports |
16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 19 | +7 | 30 | |
| 7 | Shepshed Dynamo |
18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 22 | +12 | 27 | |
| 8 | Belper Town |
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 26 | |
| 9 | Boldmere St Michaels |
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 27 | 23 | +4 | 26 | |
| 10 | Rugby Borough |
18 | 8 | 2 | 8 | 28 | 30 | -2 | 26 | |
| 11 | Bedworth United |
17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 17 | +6 | 25 | |
| 12 | Coventry United |
17 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 22 | |
| 13 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds |
14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 26 | 20 | +6 | 21 | |
| 14 | Grantham Town |
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 31 | 34 | -3 | 21 | |
| 15 | Boston Town FC |
18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 26 | 32 | -6 | 21 | |
| 16 | Basford United |
17 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 29 | 35 | -6 | 20 | |
| 17 | Barwell |
18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 23 | 26 | -3 | 18 | |
| 18 | Coleshill Town |
18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 31 | 37 | -6 | 18 | |
| 19 | Corby Town |
18 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 23 | 38 | -15 | 16 | |
| 20 | Bourne Town |
15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 12 | |
| 21 | Long Eaton United FC |
17 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 | 36 | -15 | 11 | |
| 22 | St Ives Town |
18 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 17 | 52 | -35 | 7 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellingborough Town |
9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 11 | +16 | 27 | |
| 2 | Sutton Coldfield Town |
9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 23 | 14 | +9 | 21 | |
| 3 | Boldmere St Michaels |
8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 19 | |
| 4 | Carlton Town |
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 19 | |
| 5 | Bedworth United |
9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 | |
| 6 | Loughborough University |
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 17 | |
| 7 | Mickleover Sports |
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 17 | |
| 8 | Nuneaton Town |
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 16 | |
| 9 | Rugby Borough |
10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 13 | |
| 10 | Shepshed Dynamo |
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 12 | |
| 11 | Grantham Town |
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 13 | +2 | 12 | |
| 12 | Barwell |
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 | |
| 13 | Boston Town FC |
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 12 | |
| 14 | Corby Town |
9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 10 | |
| 15 | Belper Town |
8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 10 | |
| 16 | Basford United |
10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 22 | -5 | 10 | |
| 17 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds |
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 3 | +6 | 9 | |
| 18 | Bourne Town |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 8 | |
| 19 | Long Eaton United FC |
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 12 | 16 | -4 | 8 | |
| 20 | Coleshill Town |
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 8 | |
| 21 | Coventry United |
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 6 | |
| 22 | St Ives Town |
9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 6 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellingborough Town |
8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 6 | +15 | 20 | |
| 2 | Belper Town |
9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 16 | |
| 3 | Coventry United |
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 16 | |
| 4 | Shepshed Dynamo |
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 15 | |
| 5 | Loughborough University |
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 15 | |
| 6 | Sutton Coldfield Town |
8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 15 | |
| 7 | Nuneaton Town |
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 15 | |
| 8 | Mickleover Sports |
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 13 | |
| 9 | Rugby Borough |
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 | |
| 10 | AFC Rushden & Diamonds |
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 12 | |
| 11 | Carlton Town |
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 11 | 15 | -4 | 12 | |
| 12 | Coleshill Town |
9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 10 | |
| 13 | Basford United |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 10 | |
| 14 | Boston Town FC |
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 9 | |
| 15 | Grantham Town |
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 9 | |
| 16 | Bedworth United |
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 8 | |
| 17 | Boldmere St Michaels |
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 7 | |
| 18 | Barwell |
9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 12 | 17 | -5 | 6 | |
| 19 | Corby Town |
9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 23 | -12 | 6 | |
| 20 | Bourne Town |
8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 23 | -14 | 4 | |
| 21 | Long Eaton United FC |
8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 3 | |
| 22 | St Ives Town |
9 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 30 | -23 | 1 |
Non League Div One: Northern Midlands 2026/2027 standings as of 13 Nov 2026, 18:07 UK. Last 5 shows the most recent result first.
From the OddAlerts probability model before kick-off.
