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Bishop's Cleeve
Exmouth
Bishop's Cleeve have scored 1.63 goals a game and conceded 1.50 across their last 8 home games in the Non League Div One: Southern South this season, while Exmouth have scored 1.25 and conceded 2.13 across their last 8 away games. Both teams have scored in 4 of Bishop's Cleeve's last 8 home games and 7 of Exmouth's last 8 away games. Over 9.5 corners has landed in none of Exmouth's last 8 away games. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 6 of Bishop's Cleeve's last 8 home games and 6 of Exmouth's last 8 away games. Bishop's Cleeve's last 8 home games have averaged 4.8 corners and Exmouth's last 8 away games 0.0. Stats as of 13 Nov 2026, 20:21 UK.
Bishop's Cleeve's last 8 home games and Exmouth's last 8 away games in the Non League Div One: Southern South this season.
From the OddAlerts probability model. See every market
Bishop's Cleeve vs Exmouth kicks off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 21 November 2026 in the Non League Div One: Southern South, at Kayte Lane, Bishop's Cleeve.
The OddAlerts probability model gives Bishop's Cleeve a 63% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Exmouth 18%.
Bishop's Cleeve have scored 1.63 goals a game and conceded 1.50 across their last 8 home games in the Non League Div One: Southern South this season, while Exmouth have scored 1.25 and conceded 2.13 across their last 8 away games. Both teams have scored in 4 of Bishop's Cleeve's last 8 home games and 7 of Exmouth's last 8 away games. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 6 of Bishop's Cleeve's last 8 home games and 6 of Exmouth's last 8 away games.
Bishop's Cleeve are 10th with 24 points from 16 games. Exmouth are 14th with 21 points from 15 games.
Bishop's Cleeve4W 0D 4L · 8 home games
Exmouth2W 2D 4L · 8 away games
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 4 of 850% | Win | 2 of 825% |
| 0 of 80% | Draw | 2 of 825% |
| 4 of 850% | Loss | 4 of 850% |
| 12 | Points | 8 |
| 1.50 | Points per game | 1.00 |
| 1 | Goal difference | -7 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.00 | xG per game | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | xGA per game | 0.00 |
| 13.00 | xG performance | 10.00 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 21% | Possession | 0% |
| 9.13 | Dangerous attacks | 0.00 |
| 7.88 | Dangerous attacks against | 0.00 |
| Shots | ||
| 4.50 | Shots for | 0.00 |
| 3.25 | Shots against | 0.00 |
| 1.75 | On target for | 0.00 |
| 2.13 | On target against | 0.00 |
| 36% | Shot conversion | 0% |
| 39% | On-target accuracy | 0% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 0.00 | Tackles | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Fouls committed | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Fouls won | 0.00 |
| 0.38 | Offsides | 0.00 |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 3.13 | Goals per game (total) | 3.38 |
| 13 | Goals scored | 10 |
| 1.63 | Scored per game | 1.25 |
| 12 | Goals conceded | 17 |
| 1.50 | Conceded per game | 2.13 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 4 of 850% | Scored first | 2 of 825% |
| 2 of 825% | Failed to score | 1 of 813% |
| 2 of 825% | Clean sheet | 1 of 813% |
| 4 of 850% | BTTS | 7 of 888% |
| 4 of 850% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 6 of 875% |
| 6 of 875% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 7 of 888% |
| Total goals | ||
| 8 of 8100% | Over 0.5 | 7 of 888% |
| 6 of 875% | Over 1.5 | 7 of 888% |
| 6 of 875% | Over 2.5 | 6 of 875% |
| 3 of 838% | Over 3.5 | 3 of 838% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 6 of 875% | Scored 1+ | 7 of 888% |
| 4 of 850% | Scored 2+ | 3 of 838% |
| 2 of 825% | Scored 3+ | 0 of 80% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 6 of 875% | Conceded 1+ | 7 of 888% |
| 3 of 838% | Conceded 2+ | 4 of 850% |
| 2 of 825% | Conceded 3+ | 3 of 838% |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 4 of 850% | Winning at HT | 2 of 825% |
| 2 of 825% | Drawing at HT | 1 of 813% |
| 2 of 825% | Losing at HT | 5 of 863% |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 4.75 | Total corners | 0.00 |
| 2.50 | Corners for | 0.00 |
| 2.25 | Corners against | 0.00 |
| 1 of 813% | Most corners | 0 of 80% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 3 of 838% | Over 7.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 3 of 838% | Over 8.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 3 of 838% | Over 9.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 3 of 838% | Over 10.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 3 of 838% | Over 11.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 1 of 813% | Over 12.5 | 0 of 80% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 3 of 838% | For over 4.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 2 of 825% | For over 5.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 2 of 825% | For over 6.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 1 of 813% | For over 7.5 | 0 of 80% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 2 of 825% | Against over 4.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 2 of 825% | Against over 5.5 | 0 of 80% |
| 2 of 825% | Against over 6.5 | 0 of 80% |
| By half | ||
| 0.00 | 1H total | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 1H for | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 1H against | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 2H total | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 2H for | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 2H against | 0.00 |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 3.50 | Total cards | 2.63 |
| 1.75 | Cards received | 1.00 |
| 1.75 | Opponent cards | 1.63 |
| 1 of 813% | Most cards | 1 of 813% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 6 of 875% | Over 2.5 | 5 of 863% |
| 6 of 875% | Over 3.5 | 3 of 838% |
| 1 of 813% | Over 4.5 | 2 of 825% |
| 1 of 813% | Over 5.5 | 1 of 813% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 8 of 8100% | Received 1+ | 5 of 863% |
| 6 of 875% | Received 2+ | 2 of 825% |
| 1 of 813% | Received 3+ | 1 of 813% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 7 of 888% | Opponent 1+ | 6 of 875% |
| 6 of 875% | Opponent 2+ | 4 of 850% |
| 2 of 825% | Opponent 3+ | 3 of 838% |
| By half | ||
| 1.88 | 1H total | 1.00 |
| 1.13 | 1H received | 0.38 |
| 1.88 | 2H total | 1.75 |
| 0.75 | 2H received | 0.63 |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 7.75 | Total shots (match) | 0.00 |
| 3.88 | Total on target (match) | 0.00 |
| 93% | On-target conversion | 0% |
Bishop's Cleeve's last 8 home games and Exmouth's last 8 away games in the Non League Div One: Southern South this season. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Bishop's Cleeve2W 3D 5L · 10 games
Exmouth2W 2D 6L · 10 games
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 2 of 1020% | Win | 2 of 1020% |
| 3 of 1030% | Draw | 2 of 1020% |
| 5 of 1050% | Loss | 6 of 1060% |
| 9 | Points | 8 |
| 0.90 | Points per game | 0.80 |
| -9 | Goal difference | -10 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.00 | xG per game | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | xGA per game | 0.00 |
| 10.00 | xG performance | 13.00 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 12% | Possession | 3% |
| 3.80 | Dangerous attacks | 0.00 |
| 3.20 | Dangerous attacks against | 0.00 |
| Shots | ||
| 1.80 | Shots for | 0.00 |
| 1.10 | Shots against | 0.00 |
| 0.90 | On target for | 0.00 |
| 0.80 | On target against | 0.00 |
| 56% | Shot conversion | 0% |
| 50% | On-target accuracy | 0% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 0.00 | Tackles | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Fouls committed | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | Fouls won | 0.00 |
| 0.30 | Offsides | 0.10 |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 2.90 | Goals per game (total) | 3.60 |
| 10 | Goals scored | 13 |
| 1.00 | Scored per game | 1.30 |
| 19 | Goals conceded | 23 |
| 1.90 | Conceded per game | 2.30 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 3 of 1030% | Scored first | 5 of 1050% |
| 4 of 1040% | Failed to score | 1 of 1010% |
| 3 of 1030% | Clean sheet | 3 of 1030% |
| 5 of 1050% | BTTS | 7 of 1070% |
| 4 of 1040% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 8 of 1080% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 7 of 1070% |
| Total goals | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Over 0.5 | 9 of 1090% |
| 8 of 1080% | Over 1.5 | 9 of 1090% |
| 7 of 1070% | Over 2.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 3.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Scored 1+ | 9 of 1090% |
| 3 of 1030% | Scored 2+ | 4 of 1040% |
| 1 of 1010% | Scored 3+ | 0 of 100% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Conceded 1+ | 7 of 1070% |
| 5 of 1050% | Conceded 2+ | 6 of 1060% |
| 4 of 1040% | Conceded 3+ | 5 of 1050% |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 3 of 1030% | Winning at HT | 3 of 1030% |
| 2 of 1020% | Drawing at HT | 3 of 1030% |
| 3 of 1030% | Losing at HT | 4 of 1040% |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 2.60 | Total corners | 0.70 |
| 1.20 | Corners for | 0.20 |
| 1.40 | Corners against | 0.50 |
| 0 of 100% | Most corners | 0 of 100% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 2 of 1020% | Over 7.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 8.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 9.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 10.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 11.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 12.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 2 of 1020% | For over 4.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 5.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 6.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 0 of 100% | For over 7.5 | 0 of 100% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 2 of 1020% | Against over 4.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 2 of 1020% | Against over 5.5 | 0 of 100% |
| 2 of 1020% | Against over 6.5 | 0 of 100% |
| By half | ||
| 0.00 | 1H total | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 1H for | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 1H against | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 2H total | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 2H for | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | 2H against | 0.00 |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 1.80 | Total cards | 2.70 |
| 0.90 | Cards received | 1.30 |
| 0.90 | Opponent cards | 1.40 |
| 1 of 1010% | Most cards | 2 of 1020% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 3 of 1030% | Over 2.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 3.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 4.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 5.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Received 1+ | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | Received 2+ | 4 of 1040% |
| 1 of 1010% | Received 3+ | 3 of 1030% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Opponent 1+ | 7 of 1070% |
| 3 of 1030% | Opponent 2+ | 4 of 1040% |
| 2 of 1020% | Opponent 3+ | 3 of 1030% |
| By half | ||
| 1.00 | 1H total | 1.40 |
| 0.50 | 1H received | 0.60 |
| 1.00 | 2H total | 1.40 |
| 0.50 | 2H received | 0.70 |
| Bishop's Cleeve | Stat | Exmouth |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 2.90 | Total shots (match) | 0.00 |
| 1.70 | Total on target (match) | 0.00 |
| 111% | On-target conversion | 0% |
Bishop's Cleeve's last 10 games and Exmouth's last 10 games in the Non League Div One: Southern South this season. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Stats as of 13 Nov 2026, 20:21 UK.
Lineups will appear here when they're predicted and confirmed.
Hartpury University
1–5
defeat
Dorchester Town
0–4
defeat
Falmouth Town
1–1
draw
Sporting Club Inkberrow
2–1
win
Portland United
0–0
draw
Bideford
2–3
defeat
Hungerford Town
0–3
defeat
Larkhall Athletic
0–0
draw
Worcester Raiders
1–2
defeat
Melksham Town
3–0
win
Hartpury University
1–0
win
Slimbridge
3–2
win
Tadley Calleva
0–1
defeat
Sporting Club Inkberrow
4–0
win
Barnstaple Town
4–0
win
Poole Town
2–1
win
Bristol Manor Farm
4–1
win
Bristol Manor Farm
1–3
defeat
Wallingford & Crowmarsh
3–1
win
Swindon Supermarine
0–1
defeat
Shaftesbury Town
2–1
win
Evesham United
1–1
draw
Forest Green Rovers
1–3
defeat
Bideford
3–1
win
Forest Green Rovers CC
2–6
defeat
Falmouth Town
0–3
defeat
Swindon Supermarine
0–3
defeat
Willand Rovers
1–1
draw
Hartpury University
3–1
win
Exmouth
2–0
win
No games match these filters.
Paulton Rovers
2–0
win
Worcester Raiders
0–0
draw
Barnstaple Town
1–3
defeat
Hungerford Town
1–5
defeat
Hartpury University
1–1
draw
Portland United
2–3
defeat
Slimbridge
2–0
win
Westbury United
1–2
defeat
Weymouth
2–5
defeat
Dorchester Town
1–4
defeat
Thame
1–3
defeat
Thame
3–3
draw
Barnstaple Town
2–1
win
Shaftesbury Town
1–0
win
Banbury United
2–1
win
Banbury United
0–0
draw
Tiverton Town
2–1
win
Hartpury University
1–4
defeat
Bridgwater United
3–1
win
Melksham Town
2–1
win
Bideford
1–1
draw
Bovey Tracey
3–0
win
Shaftesbury Town
4–4
draw
Winchester City
1–2
defeat
Frome Town
1–1
draw
Bideford
0–1
defeat
Bishop's Cleeve
0–2
defeat
Malvern Town
1–3
defeat
Melksham Town
0–1
defeat
Mousehole
1–0
win
No games match these filters.
Results before kick-off, most recent first, from each team's side. Open a game to see its full stats.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weymouth |
15 | 13 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 11 | +31 | 40 | |
| 2 | Swindon Supermarine |
17 | 12 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 20 | +14 | 37 | |
| 3 | Westbury United |
18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 33 | 19 | +14 | 35 | |
| 4 | Dorchester Town |
16 | 11 | 1 | 4 | 34 | 21 | +13 | 34 | |
| 5 | Hungerford Town |
16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 12 | +16 | 30 | |
| 6 | Hartpury University |
17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 31 | 22 | +9 | 27 | |
| 7 |  Sporting Club Inkberrow |
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 25 | +4 | 26 | |
| 8 | Falmouth Town |
17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 26 | |
| 9 | Portland United |
16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 25 | 0 | 25 | |
| 10 | Bishop's Cleeve |
16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 25 | 22 | +3 | 24 | |
| 11 | Worcester Raiders |
19 | 5 | 8 | 6 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 23 | |
| 12 | Tiverton Town |
16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 22 | |
| 13 | Willand Rovers |
15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 21 | |
| 14 | Exmouth |
15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 27 | -6 | 21 | |
| 15 | Barnstaple Town |
18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 26 | 28 | -2 | 20 | |
| 16 | Shaftesbury Town |
17 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 27 | 37 | -10 | 17 | |
| 17 | Bideford |
16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 15 | |
| 18 | Melksham Town |
17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 32 | -13 | 15 | |
| 19 | Slimbridge |
16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 19 | 39 | -20 | 14 | |
| 20 | Larkhall Athletic |
17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 31 | -11 | 13 | |
| 21 | Paulton Rovers |
15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 | |
| 22 | Bristol Manor Farm |
18 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 32 | -20 | 10 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hungerford Town |
8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 19 | 4 | +15 | 20 | |
| 2 | Hartpury University |
7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 19 | |
| 3 | Westbury United |
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 9 | +7 | 19 | |
| 4 | Dorchester Town |
8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 8 | +8 | 18 | |
| 5 | Swindon Supermarine |
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 16 | |
| 6 | Weymouth |
6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 15 | |
| 7 | Falmouth Town |
9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 | |
| 8 | Portland United |
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 14 | |
| 9 | Exmouth |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10 | +1 | 13 | |
| 10 | Sporting Club Inkberrow |
10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 13 | |
| 11 | Willand Rovers |
7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 12 | |
| 12 | Worcester Raiders |
8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 12 | |
| 13 | Bishop's Cleeve |
8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 12 | |
| 14 | Shaftesbury Town |
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 11 | |
| 15 | Melksham Town |
8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 10 | |
| 16 | Bideford |
10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 | |
| 17 | Tiverton Town |
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 9 | |
| 18 | Barnstaple Town |
9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 9 | |
| 19 | Paulton Rovers |
8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | -6 | 6 | |
| 20 | Larkhall Athletic |
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 5 | |
| 21 | Slimbridge |
8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 5 | |
| 22 | Bristol Manor Farm |
9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weymouth |
9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 6 | +20 | 25 | |
| 2 | Swindon Supermarine |
9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 21 | |
| 3 | Westbury United |
9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 10 | +7 | 16 | |
| 4 | Dorchester Town |
8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 16 | |
| 5 | Sporting Club Inkberrow |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 13 | |
| 6 | Tiverton Town |
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 13 | |
| 7 | Bishop's Cleeve |
8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 12 | |
| 8 | Barnstaple Town |
9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11 | |
| 9 | Falmouth Town |
8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 | |
| 10 | Portland United |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 11 | |
| 11 | Worcester Raiders |
11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 11 | |
| 12 | Hungerford Town |
8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 10 | |
| 13 | Willand Rovers |
8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 9 | |
| 14 | Slimbridge |
8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 9 | |
| 15 | Hartpury University |
10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 | |
| 16 | Larkhall Athletic |
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 8 | |
| 17 | Exmouth |
8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 8 | |
| 18 | Paulton Rovers |
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 6 | |
| 19 | Bristol Manor Farm |
9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 16 | -9 | 6 | |
| 20 | Shaftesbury Town |
8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 6 | |
| 21 | Bideford |
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 18 | -6 | 5 | |
| 22 | Melksham Town |
9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 5 |
Non League Div One: Southern South 2026/2027 standings as of 13 Nov 2026, 20:21 UK. Last 5 shows the most recent result first.
From the OddAlerts probability model before kick-off.
