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Rot-Weiss Essen
Hoffenheim II
Rot-Weiss Essen have scored 1.86 goals a game and conceded 0.43 across their last 7 home games in the 3. Liga this season, while Hoffenheim II have scored 1.43 and conceded 1.71 across their last 7 away games. Both teams have scored in 2 of Rot-Weiss Essen's last 7 home games and 4 of Hoffenheim II's last 7 away games. Over 3.5 cards has landed in each of Rot-Weiss Essen's last 7 home games and 6 of Hoffenheim II's last 7 away games. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 1 of Rot-Weiss Essen's last 7 home games. Rot-Weiss Essen's last 7 home games have averaged 10.3 corners and Hoffenheim II's last 7 away games 10.0. Stats as of 13 Nov 2026, 13:08 UK.
Rot-Weiss Essen's last 7 home games and Hoffenheim II's last 7 away games in the 3. Liga this season.
From the OddAlerts probability model. See every market
Rot-Weiss Essen vs Hoffenheim II kicks off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 28 November 2026 in the 3. Liga, at Stadion Essen, Essen.
The OddAlerts probability model gives Rot-Weiss Essen a 48% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Hoffenheim II 29%.
Rot-Weiss Essen have scored 1.86 goals a game and conceded 0.43 across their last 7 home games in the 3. Liga this season, while Hoffenheim II have scored 1.43 and conceded 1.71 across their last 7 away games. Both teams have scored in 2 of Rot-Weiss Essen's last 7 home games and 4 of Hoffenheim II's last 7 away games. Over 2.5 goals has landed in 1 of Rot-Weiss Essen's last 7 home games.
Rot-Weiss Essen are 3rd with 27 points from 13 games. Hoffenheim II are 9th with 19 points from 13 games.
Rot-Weiss Essen6W 1D 0L · 7 home games
Hoffenheim II3W 0D 4L · 7 away games
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 6 of 786% | Win | 3 of 743% |
| 1 of 714% | Draw | 0 of 70% |
| 0 of 70% | Loss | 4 of 757% |
| 19 | Points | 9 |
| 2.71 | Points per game | 1.29 |
| 10 | Goal difference | -2 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.00 | xG per game | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | xGA per game | 0.00 |
| 13.00 | xG performance | 10.00 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 52% | Possession | 57% |
| 62.57 | Dangerous attacks | 62.86 |
| 41.14 | Dangerous attacks against | 51.57 |
| Shots | ||
| 16.86 | Shots for | 12.14 |
| 6.71 | Shots against | 13.29 |
| 5.86 | On target for | 5.00 |
| 1.86 | On target against | 4.29 |
| 11% | Shot conversion | 12% |
| 35% | On-target accuracy | 41% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 1.29 | Tackles | 0.86 |
| 14.71 | Fouls committed | 12.43 |
| 11.43 | Fouls won | 14.57 |
| 1.71 | Offsides | 3.29 |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 2.29 | Goals per game (total) | 3.14 |
| 13 | Goals scored | 10 |
| 1.86 | Scored per game | 1.43 |
| 3 | Goals conceded | 12 |
| 0.43 | Conceded per game | 1.71 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 6 of 786% | Scored first | 4 of 757% |
| 0 of 70% | Failed to score | 1 of 714% |
| 5 of 771% | Clean sheet | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 729% | BTTS | 4 of 757% |
| 1 of 714% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 4 of 757% |
| 2 of 729% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 4 of 757% |
| Total goals | ||
| 7 of 7100% | Over 0.5 | 7 of 7100% |
| 3 of 743% | Over 1.5 | 5 of 771% |
| 1 of 714% | Over 2.5 | 4 of 757% |
| 1 of 714% | Over 3.5 | 3 of 743% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 7 of 7100% | Scored 1+ | 6 of 786% |
| 2 of 729% | Scored 2+ | 4 of 757% |
| 1 of 714% | Scored 3+ | 0 of 70% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 2 of 729% | Conceded 1+ | 5 of 771% |
| 1 of 714% | Conceded 2+ | 3 of 743% |
| 0 of 70% | Conceded 3+ | 3 of 743% |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 5 of 771% | Winning at HT | 3 of 743% |
| 2 of 729% | Drawing at HT | 2 of 729% |
| 0 of 70% | Losing at HT | 2 of 729% |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 10.29 | Total corners | 10.00 |
| 5.71 | Corners for | 5.86 |
| 4.57 | Corners against | 4.14 |
| 4 of 757% | Most corners | 6 of 786% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 6 of 786% | Over 7.5 | 5 of 771% |
| 6 of 786% | Over 8.5 | 5 of 771% |
| 6 of 786% | Over 9.5 | 4 of 757% |
| 3 of 743% | Over 10.5 | 4 of 757% |
| 1 of 714% | Over 11.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 1 of 714% | Over 12.5 | 1 of 714% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 5 of 771% | For over 4.5 | 5 of 771% |
| 4 of 757% | For over 5.5 | 4 of 757% |
| 2 of 729% | For over 6.5 | 3 of 743% |
| 1 of 714% | For over 7.5 | 2 of 729% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 3 of 743% | Against over 4.5 | 2 of 729% |
| 2 of 729% | Against over 5.5 | 1 of 714% |
| 1 of 714% | Against over 6.5 | 1 of 714% |
| By half | ||
| 5.00 | 1H total | 3.29 |
| 3.29 | 1H for | 2.14 |
| 1.71 | 1H against | 1.14 |
| 5.29 | 2H total | 6.71 |
| 2.43 | 2H for | 3.71 |
| 2.86 | 2H against | 3.00 |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 5.00 | Total cards | 6.00 |
| 2.86 | Cards received | 3.71 |
| 2.14 | Opponent cards | 2.29 |
| 5 of 771% | Most cards | 5 of 771% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 7 of 7100% | Over 2.5 | 6 of 786% |
| 7 of 7100% | Over 3.5 | 6 of 786% |
| 4 of 757% | Over 4.5 | 6 of 786% |
| 2 of 729% | Over 5.5 | 5 of 771% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 7 of 7100% | Received 1+ | 7 of 7100% |
| 7 of 7100% | Received 2+ | 7 of 7100% |
| 5 of 771% | Received 3+ | 6 of 786% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 7 of 7100% | Opponent 1+ | 6 of 786% |
| 5 of 771% | Opponent 2+ | 5 of 771% |
| 2 of 729% | Opponent 3+ | 3 of 743% |
| By half | ||
| 2.29 | 1H total | 2.43 |
| 1.29 | 1H received | 1.43 |
| 3.14 | 2H total | 4.14 |
| 1.71 | 2H received | 2.57 |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 23.57 | Total shots (match) | 25.43 |
| 7.71 | Total on target (match) | 9.29 |
| 32% | On-target conversion | 29% |
Rot-Weiss Essen's last 7 home games and Hoffenheim II's last 7 away games in the 3. Liga this season. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Rot-Weiss Essen7W 2D 1L · 10 games
Hoffenheim II4W 1D 5L · 10 games
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Match outcomes | ||
| 7 of 1070% | Win | 4 of 1040% |
| 2 of 1020% | Draw | 1 of 1010% |
| 1 of 1010% | Loss | 5 of 1050% |
| 23 | Points | 13 |
| 2.30 | Points per game | 1.30 |
| 10 | Goal difference | -3 |
| Expected goals | ||
| 0.00 | xG per game | 0.00 |
| 0.00 | xGA per game | 0.00 |
| 18.00 | xG performance | 13.00 |
| Possession & attacks | ||
| 51% | Possession | 54% |
| 56.40 | Dangerous attacks | 60.70 |
| 46.30 | Dangerous attacks against | 49.40 |
| Shots | ||
| 15.30 | Shots for | 13.00 |
| 8.70 | Shots against | 12.00 |
| 5.90 | On target for | 5.10 |
| 3.10 | On target against | 4.80 |
| 12% | Shot conversion | 10% |
| 39% | On-target accuracy | 39% |
| Tackles & fouls | ||
| 1.20 | Tackles | 0.90 |
| 13.70 | Fouls committed | 11.30 |
| 11.80 | Fouls won | 14.00 |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 2.90 |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Goals overview | ||
| 2.60 | Goals per game (total) | 2.90 |
| 18 | Goals scored | 13 |
| 1.80 | Scored per game | 1.30 |
| 8 | Goals conceded | 16 |
| 0.80 | Conceded per game | 1.60 |
| Outcomes | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Scored first | 6 of 1060% |
| 1 of 1010% | Failed to score | 2 of 1020% |
| 5 of 1050% | Clean sheet | 2 of 1020% |
| 4 of 1040% | BTTS | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | BTTS & over 2.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 4 of 1040% | BTTS or over 2.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| Total goals | ||
| 10 of 10100% | Over 0.5 | 10 of 10100% |
| 5 of 1050% | Over 1.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | Over 2.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 3.5 | 4 of 1040% |
| Goals scored | ||
| 9 of 1090% | Scored 1+ | 8 of 1080% |
| 4 of 1040% | Scored 2+ | 5 of 1050% |
| 2 of 1020% | Scored 3+ | 0 of 100% |
| Goals conceded | ||
| 5 of 1050% | Conceded 1+ | 8 of 1080% |
| 2 of 1020% | Conceded 2+ | 4 of 1040% |
| 1 of 1010% | Conceded 3+ | 3 of 1030% |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Half-time result | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Winning at HT | 5 of 1050% |
| 3 of 1030% | Drawing at HT | 2 of 1020% |
| 1 of 1010% | Losing at HT | 3 of 1030% |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Corners per game | ||
| 9.70 | Total corners | 9.40 |
| 4.60 | Corners for | 5.60 |
| 5.10 | Corners against | 3.80 |
| 3 of 1030% | Most corners | 8 of 1080% |
| Match corner lines | ||
| 8 of 1080% | Over 7.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 8 of 1080% | Over 8.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 7 of 1070% | Over 9.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 4 of 1040% | Over 10.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 1 of 1010% | Over 11.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 0 of 100% | Over 12.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| Corners for lines | ||
| 5 of 1050% | For over 4.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 3 of 1030% | For over 5.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| 1 of 1010% | For over 6.5 | 3 of 1030% |
| 0 of 100% | For over 7.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| Corners against lines | ||
| 6 of 1060% | Against over 4.5 | 2 of 1020% |
| 4 of 1040% | Against over 5.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| 3 of 1030% | Against over 6.5 | 1 of 1010% |
| By half | ||
| 4.90 | 1H total | 3.60 |
| 2.90 | 1H for | 2.30 |
| 2.00 | 1H against | 1.30 |
| 4.80 | 2H total | 5.80 |
| 1.70 | 2H for | 3.30 |
| 3.10 | 2H against | 2.50 |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Cards per game | ||
| 4.70 | Total cards | 5.30 |
| 2.60 | Cards received | 3.00 |
| 2.10 | Opponent cards | 2.30 |
| 6 of 1060% | Most cards | 5 of 1050% |
| Match card lines | ||
| 10 of 10100% | Over 2.5 | 8 of 1080% |
| 9 of 1090% | Over 3.5 | 8 of 1080% |
| 5 of 1050% | Over 4.5 | 6 of 1060% |
| 2 of 1020% | Over 5.5 | 5 of 1050% |
| Cards received lines | ||
| 10 of 10100% | Received 1+ | 10 of 10100% |
| 9 of 1090% | Received 2+ | 8 of 1080% |
| 6 of 1060% | Received 3+ | 6 of 1060% |
| Opponent card lines | ||
| 10 of 10100% | Opponent 1+ | 9 of 1090% |
| 8 of 1080% | Opponent 2+ | 6 of 1060% |
| 2 of 1020% | Opponent 3+ | 5 of 1050% |
| By half | ||
| 2.30 | 1H total | 2.00 |
| 1.30 | 1H received | 1.40 |
| 2.80 | 2H total | 3.50 |
| 1.50 | 2H received | 1.70 |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | Stat | Hoffenheim II |
|---|---|---|
| Shots & conversion | ||
| 24.00 | Total shots (match) | 25.00 |
| 9.00 | Total on target (match) | 9.90 |
| 31% | On-target conversion | 25% |
Rot-Weiss Essen's last 10 games and Hoffenheim II's last 10 games in the 3. Liga this season. A rate such as "5 of 7" counts the games where it happened.
Stats as of 13 Nov 2026, 13:08 UK.
Lineups will appear here when they're predicted and confirmed. Until then, see key players.
Form rating weights recent games most; the ring and bars show the percentile against players in the same role. Apps, goals and assists are this club season.
Alemannia Aachen
1–0
win
Sonnenhof Großaspach
1–0
win
RB Leipzig
1–2
defeat
xG 0.8–2.0
Jahn Regensburg
1–0
win
Ingolstadt
0–1
defeat
Fortuna Köln
2–0
win
Preußen Münster
3–3
draw
Kosova Düsseldorf
13–0
win
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
2–2
draw
SF Broekhuysen
3–0
win
Hansa Rostock
1–1
draw
Waldhof Mannheim
2–1
win
Würzburger Kickers
6–2
win
Viktoria Köln
1–0
win
Wehen Wiesbaden
0–0
draw
St. Pauli
2–0
win
xG 1.6–1.1
Sonsbeck
7–2
win
AET
Havelse
1–0
win
Saarbrücken
2–5
defeat
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
0–3
defeat
Borussia Mönchengladbach
1–2
defeat
Ried
0–3
defeat
Schwarz-Weiß Essen
5–1
win
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
0–2
defeat
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1–0
win
Ulm
3–2
win
Verl
1–0
win
Stuttgart II
1–6
defeat
Saarbrücken
1–2
defeat
Energie Cottbus
3–5
defeat
No games match these filters.
Würzburger Kickers
1–0
win
Viktoria Köln
0–1
defeat
Waldhof Mannheim
1–4
defeat
Verl
2–1
win
Stuttgart II
2–3
defeat
MSV Duisburg
2–3
defeat
Meppen
1–0
win
Ingolstadt
2–1
win
Fortuna Köln
2–2
draw
Sonnenhof Großaspach
0–1
defeat
Jahn Regensburg
5–1
win
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2–0
win
Hansa Rostock
2–3
defeat
Homburg
1–2
defeat
Freiburg II
0–3
defeat
Sonnenhof Großaspach
0–2
defeat
SGV Freiberg
6–1
win
VfR Mannheim
2–0
win
Wehen Wiesbaden
0–2
defeat
Saarbrücken
3–2
win
Jahn Regensburg
1–2
defeat
Ingolstadt
0–3
defeat
MSV Duisburg
1–3
defeat
Schweinfurt
1–1
draw
Waldhof Mannheim
1–1
draw
Erzgebirge Aue
5–3
win
Osnabrück
0–1
defeat
Stuttgart II
0–1
defeat
Rot-Weiss Essen
2–4
defeat
Ulm
3–1
win
No games match these filters.
Results before kick-off, most recent first, from each team's side. Open a game to see its full stats.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viktoria Köln |
13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 36 | 18 | +18 | 29 | |
| 2 | MSV Duisburg |
13 | 9 | 2 | 2 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 29 | |
| 3 | Rot-Weiss Essen |
13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 27 | |
| 4 | Wehen Wiesbaden |
13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 17 | +9 | 21 | |
| 5 | Ingolstadt |
13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 21 | |
| 6 | Saarbrücken |
13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 31 | 26 | +5 | 20 | |
| 7 | Alemannia Aachen |
13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 | |
| 8 | Waldhof Mannheim |
13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 23 | 20 | +3 | 19 | |
| 9 | Hoffenheim II |
13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 22 | 20 | +2 | 19 | |
| 10 | Hansa Rostock |
13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 19 | |
| 11 | Meppen |
13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 18 | |
| 12 | Stuttgart II |
13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 18 | |
| 13 | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 16 | |
| 14 | Preußen Münster |
13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 15 | |
| 15 | Würzburger Kickers |
13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 14 | |
| 16 | Jahn Regensburg |
13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 0 | 13 | |
| 17 | Verl |
13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 27 | -10 | 12 | |
| 18 | Sonnenhof Großaspach |
13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 29 | -16 | 12 | |
| 19 | Fortuna Köln |
13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 10 | |
| 20 | Havelse |
13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 10 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rot-Weiss Essen |
7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | +10 | 19 | |
| 2 | Viktoria Köln |
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 16 | |
| 3 | MSV Duisburg |
6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 15 | 7 | +8 | 14 | |
| 4 | Alemannia Aachen |
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 | |
| 5 | Waldhof Mannheim |
7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 12 | |
| 6 | Meppen |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 | |
| 7 | Wehen Wiesbaden |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 10 | |
| 8 | Hoffenheim II |
6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 8 | +4 | 10 | |
| 9 | Ingolstadt |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 10 | |
| 10 | Sonnenhof Großaspach |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 10 | |
| 11 | Würzburger Kickers |
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 9 | |
| 12 | Hansa Rostock |
6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 9 | |
| 13 | Saarbrücken |
6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 9 | |
| 14 | Preußen Münster |
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 | |
| 15 | Havelse |
7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 | |
| 16 | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 8 | |
| 17 | Jahn Regensburg |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 7 | |
| 18 | Stuttgart II |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 | |
| 19 | Verl |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 14 | -4 | 7 | |
| 20 | Fortuna Köln |
6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 3 |
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Last 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSV Duisburg |
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 11 | +7 | 15 | |
| 2 | Viktoria Köln |
6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 | |
| 3 | Saarbrücken |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 13 | +5 | 11 | |
| 4 | Wehen Wiesbaden |
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 | |
| 5 | Ingolstadt |
6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | +3 | 11 | |
| 6 | Stuttgart II |
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 11 | |
| 7 | Hansa Rostock |
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 10 | |
| 8 | Hoffenheim II |
7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 9 | |
| 9 | Fortuna Düsseldorf |
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 | |
| 10 | Rot-Weiss Essen |
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 8 | |
| 11 | Waldhof Mannheim |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 7 | |
| 12 | Meppen |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 7 | |
| 13 | Alemannia Aachen |
6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 | |
| 14 | Fortuna Köln |
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 | |
| 15 | Jahn Regensburg |
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 6 | |
| 16 | Preußen Münster |
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 6 | |
| 17 | Verl |
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 5 | |
| 18 | Würzburger Kickers |
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 20 | -11 | 5 | |
| 19 | Sonnenhof Großaspach |
6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 2 | |
| 20 | Havelse |
6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 14 | -11 | 1 |
3. Liga 2026/2027 standings as of 13 Nov 2026, 13:08 UK. Last 5 shows the most recent result first.
From the OddAlerts probability model before kick-off.
