We simulated AFC Bournemouth vs Sturm Graz 100,000 times. AFC Bournemouth won 78,800 of them (78.8%), the draw came up 13% of the time and Sturm Graz won 8.2%. The most likely score is 2-0 (11%), and both teams score in 49.8% of simulations.
| AFC Bournemouth win | 78.8% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 13% |
| Sturm Graz win | 8.2% |
| Most likely score | 2-0 (11%) |
| Expected goals | 2.78 – 0.77 |
| Both teams to score | 49.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86.3% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.4% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.3% |
| AFC Bournemouth score first | 78.7% |
| Sturm Graz score first | 18.4% |
| AFC Bournemouth clean sheet | 46.4% |
| Sturm Graz clean sheet | 6.6% |
Sparta Praha
Lillestrøm
2.4–0.9
xG
64%
Over 2.5
AZ Alkmaar
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
2.4–0.8
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Union Saint-Gilloise
Real Sociedad
1.7–1.4
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Lech Poznań
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
1.3–2.1
xG
65%
Over 2.5
Celje
Omonia Nicosia
1.4–1.3
xG
51%
Over 2.5
Salzburg
AC Milan
1.2–1.8
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Olympique Lyonnais
Crystal Palace
1.8–1.3
xG
59%
Over 2.5
Torreense
Sunderland
0.9–2.2
xG
61%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684695 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
AFC Bournemouth are favourites. They win 78.8% of our 100,000 simulations, against 13% for the draw and 8.2% for Sturm Graz. Including the draw, AFC Bournemouth avoid defeat 91.8% of the time.
2-0, which came up in 11% of simulations. Next are 3-0 (10.1%) and 2-1 (8.4%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 49.8% of simulations. AFC Bournemouth keep a clean sheet 46.4% of the time and Sturm Graz 6.6%.
The simulations average 3.55 goals: 2.78 for AFC Bournemouth and 0.77 for Sturm Graz. Over 1.5 goals lands 86.3% of the time, over 2.5 goals 68.4% and over 3.5 goals 47.3%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
