We simulated Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe 100,000 times. Aston Villa won 55,405 of them (55.4%), the draw came up 23.1% of the time and Fenerbahçe won 21.5%. No single score is common: 1-1 is the likeliest at 10.6%, while the likeliest Aston Villa win is 2-1 (9.6%). Both teams score in 58.8% of simulations.
| Aston Villa win | 55.4% |
|---|---|
| Draw | 23.1% |
| Fenerbahçe win | 21.5% |
| Most likely score | 1-1 (10.6%) |
| Expected goals | 1.96 – 1.15 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.8% |
|---|---|
| Over 3.5 goals | 37.7% |
| Aston Villa score first | 59.1% |
| Fenerbahçe score first | 35.8% |
| Aston Villa clean sheet | 32.1% |
| Fenerbahçe clean sheet | 14.5% |
Sabah
Slavia Praha
1.4–1.7
xG
58%
Over 2.5
Lens
Sporting CP
1.6–1.5
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Galatasaray
FC Barcelona
1.3–3.0
xG
79%
Over 2.5
Atlético de Madrid
Manchester United
2.0–1.3
xG
63%
Over 2.5
Arsenal
LOSC Lille
2.6–0.7
xG
62%
Over 2.5
Viking
FC Bayern München
0.9–3.7
xG
83%
Over 2.5
Inter
Club Brugge
2.7–0.9
xG
70%
Over 2.5
Villarreal
Napoli
1.8–1.3
xG
60%
Over 2.5
Every number on this page comes from one request: 1X2, scorelines, goal lines, halves, HT/FT, Asian handicaps, corners, cards and goal timing, plus the market comparison, value bets and the full expected-goals breakdown. Up to ten fixtures per call.
GET /api/predictions/generate/420684480 ?v=2 &detail=standard &include=value,corners,cards # 100,000 runs: 1X2, scores, goals, halves, # corners, cards, value bets, xG breakdown
Aston Villa are favourites. They win 55.4% of our 100,000 simulations, against 23.1% for the draw and 21.5% for Fenerbahçe. Including the draw, Aston Villa avoid defeat 78.5% of the time.
1-1, which came up in 10.6% of simulations. Next are 2-1 (9.6%) and 2-0 (8.5%). The likeliest Aston Villa win is 2-1 (9.6%). No single score is likely on its own, which is why the full spread of scorelines matters.
Both teams score in 58.8% of simulations. Aston Villa keep a clean sheet 32.1% of the time and Fenerbahçe 14.5%.
The simulations average 3.11 goals: 1.96 for Aston Villa and 1.15 for Fenerbahçe. Over 1.5 goals lands 81.9% of the time, over 2.5 goals 59.8% and over 3.5 goals 37.7%.
Our v2 engine plays the match 100,000 times. It starts from the sharpest betting market (here Pinnacle), blends in each team's recent attack and defence numbers and xG, then uses a Dixon-Coles model so low scores like 0-0 and 1-1 come up as often as they do in real football. Goal times, corners and cards are simulated minute by minute.
Every 20 minutes on matchday and every few hours before that, so it moves with team news and the betting market. The last pre-match run stays on the page after kick-off so you can compare it with the result.
